The economist wrote: Here are 10 events that will have to be followed closely in 2024

The London political and economic magazine The Economist’s predictions for 2024 list 10 critical events that are likely to occur next year.

The magazine, which each year stands out for its analysis, predictions and speculations about the future, this year published its predictions for 2024. Whether due to the increase in armed conflicts, the redesign of the map of global energy resources or the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI), the world is changing at a dizzying pace.

Tom Standage, editor of the ‘Next World 2024’ issue, has written 10 trends to watch closely next year. Here are ten developments that markets, investors and consumers will follow closely next year:

1- ELECTIONS AROUND THE WORLD

Elections around the world, in which more voters than ever will participate, will shed light on the global state of democracy. In 2024, more than 70 elections will be held in countries home to approximately 4.2 billion people. The number of voters will reach more than half of the world’s population for the first time. However, although more votes will be cast than ever, this does not mean there will be more democracy. Many elections will be neither free nor fair.

2- THE UNITED STATES GLOBAL ELECTION

Voters and the courts will make a decision about Donald Trump, who has a one in three chance of regaining the presidency. The outcome could depend on tens of thousands of voters in a handful of swing states. But the consequences will be global, affecting everything from climate policy to military support for Ukraine. Indeed, electoral fraud in Russia may mean that Vladimir Putin’s fate depends more on American voters than on Russian voters.

3- EUROPE MUST ACCELERATE

In this direction, Europe should take a step and provide Ukraine with the military and economic support necessary for a long struggle, while paving the way for eventual EU membership. This is the right thing to do, as well as protecting against the risk of Trump returning to power and withdrawing support for him.

4- PROBLEMS IN THE MIDDLE EAST

Hamas’ attack on Israel and Israel’s retaliation against Gaza have roiled the region and dispelled the idea that the world could continue to ignore the plight of the Palestinians. Will the conflict in the Middle East become a broad regional conflict or offer a new opportunity for peace? For the United States, this is also a test of whether it can adapt to a more complex and threatening world.

5- MULTIPOLAR DISORDER

The United States’ plan to pivot toward Asia and focus more on its rivalry with a rising China was derailed by the war in Ukraine and Gaza. Russia is also distracted and losing influence. Frozen conflicts are thawing and local cold wars are intensifying around the world. Instability is increasing in the Sahel. The world is bracing for more conflict as America’s “unipolar era” comes to an end.

6- SECOND COLD WAR

As China’s growth slows, tensions over Taiwan rise, and the United States continues to limit China’s access to advanced technologies, “new cold war” rhetoric has hardened. But Western companies trying to reduce their supply chains’ dependence on China will find this much easier said than done. Meanwhile, both sides will seek to capture the “middle powers” ​​of the global south, especially its green resources.

7- NEW ENERGY GEOGRAPHY

The transition to clean energy is creating new green superpowers and redesigning the map of energy resources. Lithium, copper and nickel are much more important, while oil, gas and the regions that dominate their supply are less important. Competition for green resources is reshaping geopolitics and trade and creating some unexpected winners and losers. Meanwhile, a “green backlash” is underway among voters who see climate-friendly policies as an elite conspiracy against ordinary people.

8- ECONOMIC UNCERTAINTY

Western economies performed better than expected in 2023, but have not yet plateaued. Keeping interest rates “higher for longer” will be painful for both businesses and consumers, even if a recession is avoided. China may fall into deflation.

9- ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE BECOMES REAL

Companies are adopting AI, regulators regulate it, and technologists continue to develop it. Debates will intensify over what is the best regulatory approach and whether debates over “existential risk” benefit incumbents. Unexpected uses and abuses will continue to arise. There are numerous concerns about the impact of AI on employment and the possibility of election interference. The biggest real impact is faster encoding.

10- UNITING THE WORLD?

Maybe the world will put aside ideological differences and enjoy the Paris Olympics, astronauts circling the Moon and the men’s t20 cricket World Cup. But those expecting global unity will also be surprised.