Confidence bottomed out after the election

The Consumer Confidence Index, calculated from the results of the Consumer Trend Survey conducted in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, decreased by 15.1 percent in August, while in July it was 80.1 and became 68.0. This value was recorded as the lowest value in the last 14 months.

The consumer confidence index, which increased before the elections due to salary increases, the flat exchange rate and low interest rates, fell sharply with the economic policies signed by the government after the elections.

The rise in the dollar exchange rate, tax hikes, interest rate hikes, and rising inflation added to the difficulties of life.

WHAT IS THE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX?

With the monthly survey of consumer trends, the evaluation of the current situation of consumers in terms of their financial situation and general economy, their expectations for the future and their spending and saving trends is measured.

The consumer confidence index calculated from the survey results can take values ​​in the range of 0-200. A consumer confidence index above 100 indicates an optimistic state in consumer confidence, and an index below 100 indicates a pessimistic consumer confidence.

THE ELECTORAL INDICATOR ALSO WORKED ON MAY 14

We posted on Sozcu.com.tr on April 1, 2023, “Will TurkStat Election Indicator Work on May 14?” In the news headlined “A survey that can give an idea about the possible election results is the ‘monthly survey of consumer trends’ conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute” and stated that the value of the consumer confidence index is always 90 and above in all the elections that the AKP has received in the last 20 years, we remember that this value was always below 90 in the four elections in which the government did not get what it wanted during this period.

In May, the index increased 4.0 percent compared to the previous month and exceeded 90.

Here are the AKP voting rates in the elections held in 20 years and the value of the consumer confidence index in the month of the election:

Local elections of March 28, 2004:

AKP vote rate: 41.67%
Consumer confidence index value for March 2004: 104.9

AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election.

General Election of July 22, 2007:

AKP vote rate: 46.66%
Value of the consumer confidence index for July 2007: 93.9

With this electoral result, the AKP obtained the majority to form a government on its own.

Local elections of March 29, 2009:

AKP vote rate: 38.39%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2009: 76.9

In the 2009 elections, which suffered from an economic crisis in the world and in Turkey, the AKP’s votes decreased by 8.27 points compared to the 2007 general elections and 3.28 points compared to the 2004 local elections.

General Election of June 12, 2011:

AKP vote rate: 49.83%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2011: 98.0

In the 2011 elections, the AKP increased its vote rate by 3.25 points compared to the previous general elections and by 11.44 points compared to the previous local elections.

Local elections of March 30, 2014:

AKP vote rate: 42.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index in March 2014: 92.4

The AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election and increased its vote rate compared to previous local elections.

Presidential election of August 10, 2014:

Vote rate for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 51.79%
Value of the consumer confidence index in August 2014: 93.6

AKP Chairman Erdoğan won these elections and was elected president.

General Election of June 7, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 40.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2015: 89.6

The AKP lost the parliamentary majority to form a government on its own in these elections, and the elections were repeated on November 1.

General Election November 1, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 49.50%
Consumer confidence index value for November 2015: 95.2

With this election, the AKP regained the majority to form a government on its own.

Constitutional amendment referendum of April 16, 2017:

The yes vote rate demanded by AKP and MHP: 51.4%
Consumer confidence index value for April 2017: 92.0

The proposal of the Presidential Government System requested by AKP and MHP was accepted.

Presidential Election of June 24, 2018:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 52.6%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2018: 91.1

Erdogan was elected president for the second time and the presidential system of government was introduced.

Municipal elections of March 31, 2019:

AKP vote rate: 44.33%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2019: 81.1

The AKP lost many metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, in this election.

Istanbul Elections on June 23, 2019 (again):

AKP candidate voting rate: 44.98%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2019: 80.1

Although the AKP lost Istanbul once again in this election, the vote gap increased from 13,000 to 806,000.

General elections of May 28, 2023:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 52.1%
Consumer confidence index value for May 2023: 91.1

In the May 14 elections, the Popular Alliance won a majority in parliament, while Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the presidency for the third time in the second round on May 28.

As of March 2023, the consumer confidence index was at 80.1. The value of the index has not reached the level of 90 for 56 months, that is, since July 2018, when the presidential system of government was introduced.

Although the AKP government signed many regulations, including raising the minimum pension to 7,500 TL and those who were older at the time of retirement, to increase the voting rate, the consumer confidence index remained low due to the high cost of living, but reached 87.5 in April and 91 in May rose to 1.

Of course, the general state of the economy was not the only factor in the elections, and the reliability of the TURKSTAT poll is debatable. However, the election results and the Consumer Confidence Index table listed above give an idea of ​​the election results.