Where expectations were high, a final step towards NATO for Ukraine failed to materialize at the NATO summit in Vilnius. And that went against my better judgement, says Professor Rob de Wijk. “How long have we been talking about this?”
He underlined that the “Membership Action Plan”, which had to be completed before an application for membership could be submitted, had been abandoned and that work had been underway for a long time towards the establishment of a NATO-Ukraine Council. ‘This would allow Ukraine to participate in discussions on certain topics on an equal footing. The G7 was also working on a plan to provide as many weapons and support to Ukraine as possible for as long as possible. I think this has caused a lot of irritation.’
“I think it caused a lot of irritation”
Defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague agrees. He argues that one of the reasons Zelensky has insisted on joining NATO is the negotiating position. “Obviously he’s afraid that if it ever comes to negotiations, NATO membership will be put on the table as a condition,” Wijninga says. That Russia will not stop until Ukraine joins NATO. And you cannot overlook this danger.’
“100% safe”
De Wijk believes it is “100% certain” that Russia will use NATO membership as a crowbar in possible negotiations. However, the conditions that a country must meet to become a member of NATO must first be defined. ‘Is this a ceasefire? If so, you also have to ram it because then you take advantage of the Russian weakness at that moment,” he says. “They can’t fight anymore and actually want to quit. But that accession process takes a long time, so you won’t make it.’
But NATO membership is equally unlikely to last through negotiations, he thinks. “This can certainly be felt behind the scenes,” says De Wijk.
United States
The US role in this is also somewhat vague. The Americans have removed automatism and the condition of the ceasefire from the entry requirements for Ukraine. Where BNR presenter Arend-Jan Boekestijn argues that the US is not willing to admit Ukraine, Wijninga dares to dispute this. “It’s not there because they want to keep their hands free so they can maneuver,” he says. “So if he commits now, he’ll keep his word.” Wijninga also says it is still impossible to predict how the war will end. “That’s why Biden keeps the design vague.”
Kissinger’s problem
And this creates a “Kissinger problem” situation, adds Boekestijn. Because if there is a ceasefire and Ukraine does not join NATO, a resentful country will result. “We also have no control over Ukraine’s land claims, which leads to a loose cannon,” he explains. “And that topic fell off the table, and that’s a real problem.”
“If you stop the support, the cannon fires blanks”
Wijninga doesn’t see it that way. He thinks that Ukraine will not become a loose cannon because it still depends on Western support. “If you break that mount, the gun will fire blanks,” he continues. And we don’t want that either. But then they will do no harm.’
Irritation
However, according to Wijninga, it is evident that the whole situation leads to a lot of irritation. Both with Biden and the United States and with Zelensky and the Ukraine. “It’s just hard to fixate on a specific time frame, and I understand that,” Wijninga says. But I agree with Rob: the glass is three quarters full and they are the only country in the world since 1998 to skip the accession action plan. This is already a real acceleration.’
In addition, Ukraine will be able to take a seat at the NATO-Ukraine Council table, where it will be able to speak with partner countries on an equal footing. “And the G7 has fully supported Ukraine, so there is enough support for that,” Wijninga concludes. “But in fact, we don’t know exactly how this is going to play out, or what the ending of the game will be like.”
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
