Although Ukrainian sources still refuse to formally announce the start of the long-awaited offensive, war studies professor Frans Osinga believes it has begun. “Ukraine is silent, but all indications are that offensive actions are escalating a lot.”
As an example, Osinga cites reports of a brigade in southern Ukraine engaged in a “strong penetration attempt” near Zaporizhia. “It’s about 1,500 men,” says Osinga. “While there have been smaller-scale reconnaissance operations in recent weeks, including in the south.”
“Successful campaigns have been launched around Bachmoet”
He thinks that one must realize that the front – certainly to the south – is more than a thousand kilometers long. “Even successful offensive operations are being launched around Bachmoet,” he says. “It is a widespread picture, but what we are seeing around Zaporizhia seems to confirm the expectation: if there were to be a counter-offensive, it would be around Zaporizhia”.
Wedge
According to Osinga, Ukraine’s main goal is to drive a wedge between Russian units in Crimea on the one hand and Donbass on the other. “This was the most likely scenario.” Osinga therefore calls it strange that it was actually carried out, because the Russians set up large defensive lines there. Including tank ditches, trenches and tank barriers. “It’s remarkable in that sense, but it’s still a very long front,” he continues. “The Russians can’t have defensive lines everywhere.”
He therefore believes that the defensive actions of the last few weeks were also aimed at seeing where Russia’s weak points were. “That’s where we are now, and now we have to wait for the official news,” he says. The offensive has just begun. There would be an advance of ten kilometers, and it would be a lot if it were done in one or two days.’
An offensive like the Kharkov one – in which some 60 kilometers were captured in three days – is not to be expected, thinks Osinga. “Russia didn’t set up any defensive positions then, that’s a completely different story.”
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
