It is a fundamental mistake to want to conquer a city like Bachmoet without first isolating the city and compressing the logistical supply and disposal. So says defense expert and former battalion commander George Dimitriu in BNR Perestrojkast. For a year, in fact, Bachmoet has been a battlefield for Ukraine and Russia, without it being clear whether it makes sense. From a tactical, logistical and political point of view, Bachmoet has so far had mainly a symbolic value.
A citizen offensive requires troops and combat forces not yet deployed elsewhere, Dimitriu says. ‘Ukraine has so far been able to free up its brigades again and again, while the Russians send their reserve capability to the front again and again to fill the gaps. Although the call to “build up” reserves is growing in Russia, it sends four combat battalions to the front with each Ukrainian counter-offensive. You cannot use that ability to fill a gap or repair a line.’
The Ukrainian strategy around Bachmut is therefore mainly to limit Russian spare capacity. At the same time, the actions surrounding Bachmut should help ease Russian pressure on the city, Dimitriu says. «The Russians are unable to isolate and surround Bachmut and to close the classic supply routes. So there is only one option: go block by block and suffer many losses. This will keep Ukraine’s lifelines intact.”
“It is a fundamental military error to go ahead without isolating the entire city, completely surrounding it to disrupt logistics supply and evacuation.”
Dimitriu expects that the value of the long battle surrounding Bachmoet can only be truly assessed in a few months or a year. “Then we’ll see how successful or damaging ‘Bachmoth’ was for both sides, how many people and assets they ultimately lost, and what influence it had on the counteroffensive. Bachmut’s symbolic status, according to Dimitriu, reflects the nature of urban battle. ‘Urban war it’s not suited to big manoeuvres, actually it’s small-scale units, in very bloody hand-to-hand combat.’
‘Pyrrhic victory mentality’
Clingendael researcher Bob Deen points to the cultural-historical views that hold sway in Ukraine and Russia about what actually constitutes a victory. ‘This is also called the Pyrrhic victory mentality he said: ‘it doesn’t matter how much I lose, as long as the other loses more’. And this, according to him, is exactly what is happening around Bachmoet. In addition, Wagner’s boss Yevgeny Prigozhin allegedly promised Putin to take Bachmut. This makes the Russians irrational about how many troops they release.”
For Ukrainians, Bachmoet is currently primarily a place to draw a line in the sand: so far and no further. ‘So if a city goes to ruin, then the city that is already destroyed anyway; then we will fight for every meter there.’ Ukraine could bet on a strategy in which Russia and the Wagner group take Bachmoet after a months-long battle, only to recapture it within two weeks. This is what Ukraine hopes for. But I think the Russians will also defend Bachmoet very fanatically.”
Attack in an unexpected place
It is a fundamental military mistake to go ahead without isolating the entire city, completely encircle it to disrupt the logistics supply and disposal. Ukraine will certainly take this into account if it really launches a counteroffensive, says Dimitriu. “It will be a real psychological blow for Russia, the Wagner group and political-strategic. I think now they focus mainly on psychological warfare. And I have a feeling that Ukraine will still surprise us a little and attack at a point that we did not have expected’.
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
