If the current Russian regime remains in power, then a ceasefire is the best possible. That’s what Peter Wijninga of The Hague Center for Strategic Studies in BNR’s Big Five says. However, a peace deal is a bridge too far. After all, Putin has always denied the legitimacy of Ukraine’s existence.
If this war is to be ended “properly”, then there must be Russia’s recognition of the existence of Ukraine as a state and the legitimacy of its borders, Wijninga thinks. “Ultimately, these boundaries may need to be re-established or reaffirmed. And then it might be necessary to sign a peace treaty in which all these types of agreements have been established and signed.’ But how? Putin, according to his own supporters, could not afford to make peace with an intrinsic recognition of the legitimacy of Ukraine and the inviolability of its borders.
Putin cannot quit without maximizing his profits
Wijninga therefore doubts that the Putin regime will ever be able to do such a thing. “I think the maximum will be a ceasefire, assuming Putin stays in power.” A peace agreement will therefore not be possible, also because Putin started the war precisely because he denies the legitimacy of the Ukrainian state. “In fact, he can’t quit without maximizing his profit.”
Cold War
Wijninga therefore believes that it is not at all improbable that a situation of armed peace, a sort of cold war, will occur. “It is highly questionable whether you, as an international community, are able to get the Russians, the current regime, to agree to anything more than just a ceasefire. Who actually want to accept a peace agreement, recognizing the existence of Ukraine, reaffirming its borders and guaranteeing its integrity. That’s really the question, I don’t have much faith in that.’
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In short: according to Wijninga, a new regime must be introduced in Russia. ‘But who are we as the West to be able to impose this on Russia? I don’t want to say it’s hopeless, but we’re not there yet.’
Listen to the full conversation with Defense Specialist Peter Wijninga here
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
