An offensive by the Ukrainian armed forces, or by the Russian army, has been expected for months. But neither has happened so far and there appears to be a “status quo” on the ground, says NRC columnist and Raam co-founder on Russia Hubert Smeets. “The longer it takes, the harder it gets,” says Smeets in BNR De Wereld.
According to Smeets, there are several reasons why neither side has yet launched a full-fledged offensive. “For example, the Russians may not be able to do that yet, but where the Ukrainian military has been giving out pinpricks crossing the Djnepr River, it seems the Russians don’t want that because they want to continue the war,” Incontra says. “If the Russians are getting stronger, they may have gotten what they want too soon.”
War tired
At the same time, it appears that the Ukrainian armed forces lack sufficient equipment and ammunition to begin a real offensive, Smeets says. “But the longer it takes, the harder it gets.” According to the co-founder of Window on Russia, the Ukrainian economy has already shrunk by thirty percent last year.
“Ukrainians fear the West is tired of war, I think they are right”
Furthermore, there is a fear among the Ukrainian population that the West – and especially the United States and Canada – is war-weary. “I think they are right, the European front line has remained quite closed so far,” Smeets says. “Only Hungary is constantly falling into oblivion.”
Pro-Europe or Ostpolitik
Another European country that Moscow is trying to influence is Germany. “That, together with Austria, is the only country where pro-Russian demonstrations take place with a certain regularity and grandeur”. According to Smeets, Moscow identifies Germany as a “weak rock”.
Foreign commentator Bernard Hammelburg also sees that Germany is grappling with choosing a pro-European policy or respecting Ostpolitik. “This is something a good chess player can use,” Hammelburg thinks. Smeets calls the situation in Germany a “drip faucet slowly eroding the stone.”
Crimea
At the same time, according to Smeets on the Russian side, it is very important that the government can continue to give the impression that the West is to blame and that Russia is the victim fighting for its existence. “As long as the society goes on like this, I think the tensions are manageable, but as soon as the patriotic feeling disappears, cracks can appear.”
“Crimea is a big fortress, with trenches all along the coast”
However, it’s not that far yet and so Smeets expects Russia to prolong the war for some time. “I think the war will enter a negotiation phase only when the Ukrainians have been able to successfully organize a series of counterattacks, such as the blockade of Crimea. At the moment, however, the Crimea is a large fortress, with trenches extending all along the coast.
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
