Today is the second day of Xi Jinping’s visit to Russia and once again the Chinese president and his Russian guest are at the negotiating table. A possible ceasefire was discussed yesterday during an informal lunch. Geopolitical analyst Alex Krijger expects both countries to conclude various trade deals. “They need each other. China doesn’t want Russia to lose the war.”
While both countries need each other, the relationship is unequal: While China likes to use cheap Russian gas, Russia needs China more than the other way around. “China is the older brother and Russia is the younger partner,” says Krijger. After all, Russia is suffering from the sanctions, but it can continue to do business with its big neighbor.
‘China increasingly tries to take control’
But the main theme remains the war in Ukraine, or rather, the crisis, as China continues to call the neutral war. And the role Xi plays in this as a peace broker. Warrior calls it an astonishing construct: a huge war in Europe in which Xi gets to play the peacemaker. China has previously been able to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia together. While these are situations and conflicts where the West, often Americans and sometimes even Europeans, take the lead, you see that China is increasingly trying to take control here.
Cease-fire
Krijger expects Xi Jinping to seriously try to implement a ceasefire because it will benefit both Russia and China. Russia is occupying most of Ukraine and is actually waiting for a Ukrainian counter-offensive. A truce is therefore in favor of the Russians who can then consolidate. And a file is also a nice boost for Xi’s carefully crafted image of himself and China.
According to Krijger, Xi is amazed at how badly the Russians have operated and are still operating in Ukraine. “He’s not doing as Putin had indicated beforehand, so he’s worried about that too.” But what Xi is also concerned about is that this is a war with far-reaching geopolitical consequences. It is a regional war with a global impact.
Xi supports Putin. It really is East versus West’
Krijger therefore really sees the conflict as a conflict between East and West. ‘This of course also indirectly affects Taiwan. And it’s very simple: Xi supports Putin that of course the Russians shouldn’t lose him. That Russia must win. So it’s really West versus East.’
Loose rope
It doesn’t matter that, according to Krijger, China will not allow escalation by supplying Russia with really heavy weapons and ammunition. ‘Great job, the Chinese won’t do it, because they know Western sanctions will follow. Especially from the United States, but also from Europe. And that’s exactly what Xi Jinping doesn’t need, because the economy is obviously reeling.’ Although Xi has just been re-elected secretary general and president and therefore has a strong mandate, he “he really wants to keep the lines open, especially with Europe, in terms of the economy”. With this, Xi appears to be engaged in a major geopolitical balancing act.
Follow the war in Ukraine here in our live blog
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
