The Odessa governor says on Telegram that an energy supplier has been hit, causing power outages in parts of Odessa. Kharkiv, the country’s second largest city, has been hit 15 times, according to the local governor. Utilities have also been targeted there. Two people were injured when a rocket hit near their home.
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The mayor of Kiev has announced that several explosions have occurred in the southwest of his city. Rocket attacks were also reported in Dnipro and other parts of Ukraine during the night between Wednesday and Thursday.
‘It’s another attack on the population’
According to defense analyst Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, the attack was predictable. “Several Russian frigates had already been sighted in the Black Sea. These cruisers are capable of launching cruise missiles.” Air raid sirens blared for hours in Kiev. “But it’s another attack on the population.”
Bachmoth
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg expects the town of Bachmoet to fall into Russian hands in the near future. Ukrainian President Zelensky, however, is sending extra soldiers this way. “He has already said that Bachmoet will not be defended at all costs, he will come back to that,” says Bolder. “Ukraine is doing everything possible to stop the so-called Ground communication lines keep open. For the supply of ammunition and the change of soldiers. But in the end this city will fall anyway.”
If the city falls into Russian hands, it will be at the expense of a lot of Russian equipment and a lot of Russian soldiers. “Zelensky is trying to attract more Russians there. However cynical, it is more beneficial for Ukraine to kill more Russians. They can no longer be used in another battle.’
Exhaustion
Bachmut’s strategic importance for Ukraine is therefore primarily the exhaustion of the Russians. “Strategically, Bachmoet is not that interesting, except that there are bigger roads to the west.” So on the one hand it is a question of waiting for the fall of the city, or for a Ukrainian counterattack, he thinks. “But as long as Ukraine holds out here, they won’t start.”
He expects the Ukrainian army to have enough Western equipment. Bolder sees two options: ‘In the north near Kharkov, move east to take Luhansk province. The other option is to break a land bridge in Mariupol and Melitopol to isolate Crimea.” Dal won’t happen this month, rather in April or May, thinks Bolder.
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