Former ground forces commander Mart de Kruif speaks of a battle for prestige, because the Russians have something to fix. Two weeks ago the Russians already attacked Vuhledar where heavy losses were suffered. “Apparently, now that loss of face needs to be remedied,” says De Kruif.
There is not even talk of a real offensive, he dares to say. He says the battle of Vuhledar and Bachmoet is mostly symbolic rather than a real offensive. De Kruif even wonders if the Russians are capable of launching an offensive, and points out that if they did, they would do so in the north near Luhansk.
Doubts
De Kruif’s doubts about the Russians’ ability to launch an offensive are due to the difficulty the Russians have had so far in breaking through the Ukrainian front lines. Something that is needed to gain ground, says De Kruif. “But they can’t. And this is a sign that the offensive is not actually starting. You could say they attacked, but they can’t break away from the pack.’
And so the Russians won’t win the war, argues De Kruif. Even if the Russians score local successes in the coming weeks or months, De Kruif thinks it will be too late. By then, the Ukrainian military would have been able – with weapons from the West – to begin a counter-offensive. ‘I think the chance of the Russians taking Donbass is very small,’ says De Kruif. “In fact, I think they will lose ground.”