Tomorrow the war in Ukraine will last exactly one year. The Russians are rumbling internally, says defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. “There’s not much to celebrate for the Russian military.”
Wijninga does not expect the Russians to do anything different on the battlefield tomorrow than is already happening. ‘It may be that they carry out some air strikes on the infrastructure, we have seen this regularly in the past. Some of them may follow tomorrow, to ‘celebrate’ that the invasion started a year ago.’
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According to Wijninga, after a year of fighting in Ukraine, the Russian military actually has very few successes to celebrate. The Russians suffered heavy losses, and there has been no major breakthrough at the front for a long time. “But objectively they control 18 percent of Ukrainian territory. You could “celebrate” it, but the Kremlin won’t like it, so I don’t think they will brag about it much.”
Chaos
The chaos on the Russian side has been reflected in recent days in the strong criticisms that the boss of the mercenary army Wagner Prigozhin has expressed in the Kremlin. He accuses the Kremlin of being responsible for the heavy losses suffered by his men in Bachmoet, because the necessary arms deliveries do not arrive.
The biggest problems with Russian supply lines started after the Ukrainian military started deploying HIMARS missile launchers. “They bombed all kinds of supply and logistics centers behind the front,” Wijninga says. The Russian response was to place it further behind the front, out of HIMARS range. This also means that if you are fighting hard in Bachmoet, trucks need to be driven back and forth with supplies, fuel and ammo. This slows down the advance.”
Ukrainian offensive
Wijninga does not rule out that tomorrow the Ukrainian army will try to deliver a heavy blow to the Russians. “If the Russians are preparing something, the Ukrainian military will be informed through the intelligence services. But if the Ukrainians do it, you don’t hear about it. So maybe they have prepared something. On the other hand, the question is to what extent they are already capable of organizing an offensive».
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
