For more than ten months Ukraine has been able to hold its own in the war against Russia. While Putin expected to control all of Ukraine within three days, his army has been battling Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky’s highly motivated army for more than ten months.
But this immediately begs the question: will it end? “I doubt that will happen in the short term,” says Han Bouwmeester, a colonel and associate professor of military strategy at the Dutch Defense Academy. “As it stands now, both sides still see opportunities in this war. That means this war will continue for a while, I’m afraid.”
Even Russian rhetoric that they are open to negotiations won’t help with an early end to the war, thinks Hubert Smeets, a journalist and Eastern European expert. Through his spokesman Peskov, Putin says whenever he is open to a conversation, on his terms. And those conditions are the reality right now on the ground. They want the occupied territory to stay occupied. Only if the Ukrainians accept it will there be talks with Russia. It’s not a serious offer,’ says Smeets.
Ukraine in ‘winning mood’
Even Zelenskyj will not resign himself to this. He wants to reconquer the entire occupied area, including Crimea, which has been annexed by Russia since 2014. “They are in a winning mood, they have also achieved many successes since August 8”. What works primarily in Ukraine’s favor is the motivation for war. ‘Society was once fragmented, divided and decentralized. But unity has never been as great as it is now in the last thirty years’, observes the journalist.
“It may not matter on the battlefield, but for President Zelensky it’s an extremely important starting point.” There’s also a downside, Smeets points out. “As a result, Zelensky can’t make too many concessions to Russia, because the population doesn’t listen at all.”
Bouwmeester sees other ways to end the war. “Of course it is logical when there is a winner. But nowadays you see that even the parties are exhausted on both sides. One could think of the money that has run out, of the population that is fed up or that the supplies for the troops have run out. This allows the war to ‘freeze’, explains the colonel. “The front lines often remain intact, but you see there is no intense fighting. Full employment will then decrease, but from time to time the flame will flare up in the pan.’
Frozen conflict
Bouwmeester thus refers to the war already raging in eastern Ukraine before the Russian invasion. “Sometimes even that was a frozen conflict. (…). It is possible that this conflict too is moving in this direction.’ Smeets predicts this scenario won’t materialize for a while. This is partly because Russia’s inventories are higher than expected. “But the fact is that Russia has lost a lot of modern equipment and now they are looking deeper into the basement for old Soviet equipment.”
However, this causes a lot of collateral damage, because that weaponry is less accurate. Smeets also sees it in the latest attacks. “Thursday they launched 120 missiles against Ukraine. Russia’s goal is to bring down the Ukrainian people. There is a destructive side to Russia’s war.”
What can Putin and Zelensky bring home?
For Putin, the current circumstances would be enough to end the war, Bouwmeester thinks. He is referring to the old Novorossiya plan, in which parts of Ukraine up to Moldavian Transnistria would come under Russian rule. “In this somewhat reduced version, it would still be enough for Putin to sell it.”
For Zelensky, the situation won’t be ideal. ‘First he wanted to go back to the situation before February 24, but that would mean losing Crimea and leaving Russia in part of Donbass. You see Zelensky adjusting those claims now that successes are being achieved on the battlefield. They want all of Ukraine back,’ says Bouwmeester.
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
