When Israel bombarded Gaza with airstrikes after Hamas launched its rocket attacks in October. 7 attack,

It

created a dramatic divide among Democrats

about a war that has claimed thousands of civilian lives

.

Progressive activists organized protests across the country, demanding an immediate ceasefire and accusing President Biden of complicity in genocide. A handful of Democrats in Congress joined the call for a ceasefire, but backed out

Good

instead of blaming Biden for Israel’s actions.

At the height of the offensive,

b

Before the weeklong pause, polls showed most Democrats and voters under 35 opposed Israel’s offensive, while most Republicans supported it.

An NBC News poll found that as many as 70% of young voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of the war, while 46% said they did.

rather vote for a plan

former President Trump in next year’s election, with just 42% for Biden. Other surveys showed that Biden had a narrow lead among young voters, but far less than the 20th

-percentage point

margin he scored in the 2020 exit polls.

With Bidens already sagging, these numbers suggested he was facing a serious problem among part of his voter base.

But now, strategists and pollsters say, those concerns are starting to look exaggerated. The gap between Democrats has not widened. The progressive protests have not spread. And the NBC poll appears to have been an outlier.

Most Democrats in Congress have backed Biden’s policies, which combine support for Israel with pressure to minimize civilian casualties and work toward peace negotiations with Palestinians other than Hamas. When progressives in the House of Representatives organized a letter

Encouraging Biden to secure robust bilateral ceasefire, only 24 out of 2

1

Three Democrats signed for about 11%.

No one in the Senate, including Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts, made a similar call. [Over time, a bunch of senators called for ceasefires, but with lots of different conditions, mostly hostage releases, which is not the same as the House progressives’ unconditional ceasefire. Explaining all that here would take too much time, I think.]

Meanwhile, Biden’s diplomacy was evolving. In October, the president rallied international support for Israel in the wake of the Hamas attacks. But after Israeli airstrikes caused more than 13,300 deaths

a number that now exceeds 15,000

he went out to urge leaders to reduce civilian tolls.

Biden a

Government officials said what appeared to be a shift was not a response to domestic political pressure but was part of their approach all along. Still, the increasing emphasis on protecting citizens helped calm fears among Democrats.

On Friday, Israel resumed its airstrikes after negotiations to exchange more Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners collapsed. But Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken said Israeli leaders had agreed to put a premium on protecting civilians and continue allowing humanitarian supplies into the war zone.

The war in Gaza could still have an impact on the presidential election, but it may not be as simple as low turnout among Democratic voters dissatisfied with Biden’s support for Israel.

Traditionally, foreign policy issues don’t have much visibility in presidential campaigns unless American lives are at stake, noted Republican pollster Whit Ayres. But the way a president handles foreign crises is often helpful

[as]

a proxy for his competence and ability to perform the task.

Ayres noticed that

Biden’s reputation as a foreign policy expert took a hit in 2021 after the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan, an episode that appeared to dent the president’s popularity.

Trump,

Who is

in all probability

to be the…

Next year’s Republican nominee has already aired a TV commercial attacking Biden as a weak leader, among other things

footage video

of troops leaving Kabul and of Biden stumbling on the steps of Air Force One.

Biden might be able to refute that argument if his diplomacy ends the war in Gaza and opens the way to peace talks. He can already claim some success in preventing the war from spreading to Lebanon or other countries.

Perhaps unfair, but it appears that voters do not reward foreign policy success as often as they punish foreign policy failure. President George HW Bush helped bring the Cold War to a peaceful end in 1991, but he lost his job the following year thanks to a brief recession.

Biden’s success in rallying support for Ukraine and Israel has not translated into higher approval ratings at home, Ayers

said

. Inflation, immigration and crime all rank much higher [among voters] then foreign policy.

Israel was in Gaza, and how Biden handles the fallout will matter. But the race will largely continue

How

voters

feel about

the economy and other domestic issues, not diplomacy.