Valley voters shrugged in the election to replace Nury Martinez. June getting better?

Los Angeles City Council District 6 candidates Imelda Padilla, left, and Marisa Alcaraz during a debate in Panorama City in March.
(Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times
)

Valley voters shrugged in the election to replace Nury Martinez. June getting better?

LA politics

Dakota Smith

April 14, 2023

The scandal that toppled Los Angeles City Council president Nury Martinez generated international headlines, protests outside City Hall and calls for government reform.

But last week’s election to fill Martinez’s vacant city council seat was largely ignored by voters. Most refused to vote.

Only 11.4% of voters in Council District 6, which covers the central and eastern San Fernando Valley, participated in the April 4 election, according to certified results released Friday by the Los Angeles County Registrar/Recorder.

A total of 12,638 ballots were returned by mail. Another 872 people cast their votes in voting booths. More than 118,000 voters were mailed ballots, part of an effort to get more votes.

City Councilwoman Monica Rodriguez, who represents the northeastern San Fernando Valley, said she’s not surprised by the low turnout, given that special elections typically draw fewer voters.

Rodriguez also linked the turnout to what she said was a lack of media coverage, saying that news outlets did not cover the race the same way they “reported the circumstances that triggered the special election.”

Rodriguez is supporting candidate Imelda Padilla, one of the top two voters in last week’s election. Padilla, a community advocate, will face Marisa Alcaraz, a top adviser to City Councilwoman Curren Price, in the June 27 runoff.

The final results of the election show that Padilla received

25.7%25.65%

of the vote, while Alcaraz received

21.1% 21.13%

.

Both women are progressive Democrats, though not as far to the left as some LA City Council members. Both have similar views when it comes to police workforce and homelessness policies. Given their overlapping views, the candidates’ personal stories and resumes are likely to be heavily impacted by their second-round campaigns.

Alcaraz, who also worked for former City Councilman Richard Alarcn, is a single mother who grew up in Lake Balboa. Padilla, who has worked for several community groups, grew up in Sun Valley and has spoken about her personal battle with rickets and having a brother who is in prison.

Price, who supports Alcaraz, said the election comes down to how the candidates communicate what they’ve done, what their experiences are and how they relate to the concerns voters have.”

Low voter engagement in this majority Latino district will be a challenge. The Times reported in 2022 that many Latino residents are skipping elections in LA because they think their vote won’t count or because they don’t think a candidate represents their opinion.

There are about 64,650 registered Latino voters in District 6, but only 3,362, or 5%, cast ballots, according to political data specialist Paul Mitchell. That figure includes only the first ballots received by the county. Mitchell said Latino voters are generally more likely to be personal voters, but he predicted that post-election data analysis will also show that Latino voters underperformed.

Another group that underperformed on the first ballot

count

were young voters, with only 4% of votes cast.

In contrast, Armenian-American voters are only about 4% of registered voters in the districts,

but they saw a 22% turnout and were 12% of all those who turned in ballots on the first returns.

An Armenian-American candidate, Rose Grigoryan, was on the ballot and placed fourth in the primary.

Historically, Armenian-American turnout will beat almost all other categories of voters if an Armenian-American is on the ballot, said political strategist Eric Hacopian.

“That effect is exaggerated in low turnout special elections,” Hacopian said.

Imelda Padilla and Marisa Alcaraz look set for round two in City Council District 6 race

Mitchell, the voter data specialist, said Padilla and Alcaraz have a “clean slate” when it comes to the general because there is no guarantee that the voters who came in the primaries will vote in the general.

Past elections in this district have shown how the primary and runoff can produce vastly different results. In 2013, the last time a seat was open for District 6, Martinez trailed primary runner-up Cindy Montaez by nearly 20 points.

But Martinez roared back in the second round, beating Montaez by nearly 10 points in one of the biggest city council upsets in recent history.

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