A tight agenda awaits economic management

A busy agenda awaits economic management, especially the XII Development Plan, the budget for 2024 and the data that will be announced one after another in October, which will begin tomorrow, and in the last quarter of the year.

On October 3, Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan will make a presentation to the GNAT Planning and Budget Commission. Erkan is expected to make a comprehensive presentation to the commission members within the framework of global developments, the Turkish economy, inflation and monetary policy.

On the same day, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) will announce inflation data for September. Economists participating in the AA Financial Inflation Expectations Survey expect the Consumer Price Index (CPI) to rise 5 percent in September. In August, the CPI was 58.94 percent annually and 9.09 percent monthly.

DEVELOPMENT PLAN AND WORK BUDGET

TÜİK will share August labor force statistics with the public on October 10. In July, the number of unemployed decreased by 38 thousand people compared to the previous month and reached 3 million 291 thousand people, and the unemployment rate decreased by 0.2 points to 9.4 percent.

Preparations by ministries and institutions for the 2024 budget continue intensively. The central government budget for 2024 is due to be presented to Parliament in October.

During the budget marathon, the budgets of the ministries and institutions will be discussed first in the Planning and Budget Commission of the GNAT and then in the General Assembly. Budget work is expected to continue through the end of the year.

In addition to the budget, economic management also continues with the preparations of the XII Development Plan.

The plan is expected to be presented to the Turkish Grand National Assembly in October. Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that after the Medium Term Program, the suggestions and expectations of the private sector and working groups will be reflected in the processes of the 12th Development Plan and the Central Government Budget within the understanding of governance.

It is stated that the goals of investment, production, employment and export processes, especially the fight against inflation, will be reflected in the documents and plans that are being prepared.

Some regulations related to the economy are expected to reach the agenda of Parliament, which will begin the new legislative year on October 1, in the last quarter of the year. While studies on the demands of employees and retirees continue, it is expected that the necessary regulations will be on the agenda of party groups and parliamentarians once finalized.

THE CENTER’S CALENDAR OF INTERESTS HAS BEEN ANNOUNCED

The economic management agenda will be busy both in the last quarter of the year and in October.
Central Bank Governor Hafize Gaye Erkan is expected to announce the last inflation report of the year on November 2. The messages that Erkan will give will be closely followed by the economy and the markets.

The Central Bank will share the Financial Stability Report with the public on November 16. The Bank will evaluate the entire evolution of financial stability and the effects of the measures adopted in the financial sector.

TurkStat is expected to announce gross domestic product data for the third quarter of the year at the end of November. The Turkish economy recorded 3.8 percent growth in the second quarter of the year and achieved 12 consecutive quarters of growth.

Another piece of information that the markets will follow closely will be the meetings of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Central Bank. The MPC is scheduled to meet on October 26, November 23 and December 21. At its last meeting, the Board increased the one-week repo auction interest rate, which is the policy rate, by 500 basis points to 30 percent.

ECONOMIC DIPLOMACY WILL CONTINUE

Economic diplomacy is expected to continue unabated in the final quarter of the year.

While economic relations were one of the prominent topics in President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s diplomatic traffic, in the approximately four months after the elections, cooperation agreements were signed with many countries, and the economy was one of the highlighted topics in the international meetings.

Minister of Treasury and Finance Mehmet Şimşek recently attended the annual meetings of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in Egypt and previously accompanied President Erdoğan’s contacts in the US and held meetings with various groups, from ministers even entrepreneurs and fund managers. to senior managers of credit rating agencies. (AA)