Markets turned to OVP

While a negative trend prevailed in world markets following the increase in US Treasury yields, as well as the announcement by Russia and Saudi Arabia to extend voluntary cuts in oil production and exports until the end of year, the Medium Term Plan (PMP) ), which will be announced at the national level, has focused investors.

While concerns about inflation hitting asset prices around the world have subsided for a while, oil prices, which gained momentum after the biggest oil producers announced they would continue supply restrictions until late of the year, fueled concerns about inflation once again.

Stock markets turned negative under pressure from rising Treasury yields and rising US oil prices.

Analysts said US Treasury yields rose as economic data showed resilience and recently released data indicated no need to change interest rates any time soon.

While verbal guidance from US Federal Reserve (Fed) officials on future policy is also in the spotlight for investors, yesterday Federal Reserve Board member Christopher Waller said that The latest economic data will give the Federal Reserve some time to decide if additional rate hikes are necessary. to control inflation.

Waller said he needed more data to know whether interest rate hikes have come to an end, adding that another rate hike is unlikely to send the economy into recession.

Analysts said the Federal Reserve’s “Beige Book” report will be followed up today, noting that possible signals about future monetary policy are expected to have an impact on asset prices.

OIL PRICE INCREASE

On the other hand, Saudi Arabia announced that it will maintain until the end of the year the voluntary cut in oil production of 1 million barrels per day that it implemented from July, while the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, Aleksandr Novak, affirmed that his country has extended the voluntary cut Cut in oil exports of 300,000 barrels per day until the end of the year.

After the aforementioned events, the price of a barrel of Brent oil, which yesterday maintained an upward trend for the sixth consecutive day and closed the day at 89.8 dollars with an increase of 1.1 percent, registered the highest daily closing since November 2022. Brent oil started the new day on a flat course.

GOLD PRICES DECREASED

With the effect of rising bond yields, the dollar index closed yesterday at the 104.8 level, up 0.6 percent, and made the highest daily close since March 2023.

With this evolution, the price of an ounce of gold, on the other hand, decreased by 0.6 percent and closed the day at 1,926.2 dollars, currently trading just above the previous closing price.

Yesterday, the Dow Jones Index declined 0.56 percent, the S&P 500 Index declined 0.42 percent and the Nasdaq Index declined 0.08 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. US index futures contracts also started the new day with a negative trend.

NEGATIVE ON THE EUROPEAN AND ASIAN SIDE

While European stock markets are on a negative course, today will follow the speech of the president of the Bank of England (BoE), Andrew Bailey, in the UK parliament.

The fact that the services sector and the combined Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) data announced yesterday across the region came in below expectations, except in the UK, raised concerns about economic activity.

While the eurozone composite PMI fell to a 33-month low of 46.7 in August, the region’s producer price index (PPI) declined 0.5 percent on a month in July, in line with expectations.

Guidance from European Central Bank (ECB) officials on future policies also remains the focus of investors’ attention.

While the DAX 40 index depreciated 0.34 percent in Germany, the CAC 40 index 0.34 percent in France and the FTSE 100 index in the United Kingdom 0.20 percent, the FTSE MIB 30 index in Italy it followed a horizontal trajectory. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day with a negative trend.

A negative trend was observed in the Asian markets excluding Japan.

With the extension of oil supply restrictions by Saudi Arabia and Russia until the end of the year, a selling trend was highlighted in Asian stock markets.

Following negative signals for economic activity from data releases in China, risk appetite continued to decline across the region, with expectations that higher oil prices would negatively affect the economy.

With growing concerns about the country’s economy, the dollar/yuan parity maintained its upward trend for the third consecutive day, while the parity is at the highest level of last year with the depreciation of the yuan.

While the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.3 percent in Japan near the close, China’s Shanghai Composite Index declined 0.4 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index 0.6 percent and the South Korea’s Kospi 0.7 percent.

Awaiting OVP

Nationwide, the BIST 100 index on the Istanbul Stock Exchange, which had a bullish trend yesterday, ended the day at 8,236.14 points with a value gain of 1.16 percent, achieving the highest daily close of all the time.

News yesterday that the World Bank plans to double the fund for Turkey from $18bn to $35bn increased risk appetite.

The dollar/TL is trading today at 26.8000 at the opening of the interbank market, after closing yesterday at 26.7799 with an increase of 0.1 percent.

Analysts stated that the PPM, which will be announced today by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, is in the focus of investors and that the volatility of the statements may increase in the markets.

In his speech after the cabinet meeting yesterday, Erdogan said: “We believe with all our hearts that we will bring inflation to its knees.”

THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE FOLLOWED

Analysts say that today the data agenda is quiet at home and that the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book will be followed, in addition to factory orders in Germany, retail sales in the euro area, the foreign trade deficit in the US. US, services, and overseas PMI composite data. He noted that in the BIST 100 index, the 8,300 and 8,400 levels are resistance, and 8,200 and 8,100 are support.

09.00 Germany, factory orders for July

12.00 Euro Zone, retail sales for July

14.00 Türkiye, Medium Term Program (MTP) announcement

15:30 USA, foreign trade balance for July

16.45 US, August services and composite PMI

17.00 US, August ISM Services Sector PMI

21:00 USA, FED Beige Book (AA)