Despite the optimism in global markets that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will not raise interest rates for the rest of the year, developments in the Chinese economy continue to put pressure on asset prices.

While signs from macroeconomic data releases around the world show that economic activity continues to slow, this situation causes different prices on both sides of the Pacific Ocean.

While US labor market data shows that the labor market slowdown is accelerating, expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold interest rates constant for the remainder of the year are growing stronger.

REVISED US SECOND QUARTER GROWTH DATA

While second-quarter growth data for the US economy was revised from 2.4 percent to 2.1 percent, the policy rate was set at the Fed’s September meeting in markets pricing after data showed the country’s economy grew less than expected in the second. quarter and job growth slowed more than expected, with expectations that it will remain near 90 percent.

Analysts drew attention to the importance of data due out today and tomorrow in the US, noting that non-farm payroll data is expected to influence the direction of markets.

While the aforementioned events sparked a heavy buying trend in bond markets, the US 10-year bond yield fell to 4.07 percent today after hitting a 16-year high the last week.

The price of gold rose to $1,945 an ounce, on expectations that the Federal Reserve would end its “hawkish” policies, maintaining the bullish trend for the fourth consecutive business day.

With this evolution, the Dow Jones index rose 0.11 percent, the S&P 500 index 0.38 percent and the Nasdaq index 0.54 percent on the New York Stock Exchange. US index futures contracts started the new day with a mixed performance.

INFLATION AND RESSION CONTINUE IN EUROPE

Although a mixed course is observed in the European stock markets, the dilemma of inflation and recession persists in the region.

According to data released yesterday in Germany, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.1 percent year-on-year, beating expectations, while uncertainties about future European Central Bank (ECB) policies continued to gain strength.

While the FTSE 100 Index in the UK and the FTSE MIB 30 Index in Italy rose 0.12 percent yesterday, the DAX 40 Index in Germany declined 0.24 percent and the CAC 40 Index in France declined 0. ,12 percent. Index futures contracts in Europe started the new day on a mixed course.

FLOW PUSHES ASSET PRICES IN ASIA

The negative news flow from China continues to pressure asset prices in Asian markets.

While the possibility of Country Garden, one of the largest real estate companies in the country, defaulting increases the perception of risk, data released today showed that economic activity continues to slow. Consequently, although China’s manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 49.7, it signaled that the contraction continues.

In Japan, by contrast, retail sales rose 6.8 percent in July, above expectations, while industrial production fell 2 percent.

While the Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.9 percent in Japan near the close, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index declined 0.4 percent, the Shanghai Composite Index in China declined 0.6 percent and the Kospi index in South Korea decreased 0.4 percent.

NATIONAL EYES ON GROWTH DATA

On Tuesday, following a downward trend in the domestic market, the BIST 100 index of the Istanbul Stock Exchange depreciated 0.44 percent, closing the day at 7,907.13 points, reaching its highest level at 8,013.52. points.

The dollar/TL is trading today at 26.7160 at the opening of the interbank market, after closing yesterday at 26.7013 with an increase of 0.6 percent.

Analysts reported that closing and moving positions can increase volatility in the markets due to the expiration date in the Futures and Options Market (VIOP).

Today it is stated that the intense data agenda will be followed, especially the growth of the second quarter in the country, the summary of the meeting of the Money Market Board (PPK) of the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), inflation in the eurozone and personal consumption spending in the US Analysts noted that technically, the 8,000 and 8,200 levels in the BIST 100 index are in the position of resistance, and the 7,900 and 7,750 points are in the support position.

Economists participating in the AA Finans expectations survey predict that GDP will rise 3.32 percent in the second quarter of 2023.

The data to follow in the markets today are the following:

10.00 Türkiye, second quarter GDP

10.55 Germany, unemployment rate in August

12.00 Euro Zone, CPI for August

14.00 Türkiye, PPK Summary of the meeting

14.30 Türkiye, weekly money and banking statistics

15:30 US, July Personal Consumption Expenditure, Personal Income

15:30 US, weekly jobless claims (AA)