The economic agenda will be busy: markets focus on the data calendar

Starting next week, Türkiye will focus on its intense economic agenda.

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee (PPK) interest rate decision, second quarter growth figures, Medium Term Program (MTP) announcement and budget work will be among the main themes.

In the coming days, the markets will focus on the intense data calendar and the MTP to be announced.

CENTRAL BANK WILL ANNOUNCE ITS DECISION OF INTEREST

The MPC Central Bank will announce its interest rate decision on Thursday, August 24 at 2:00 p.m.

The Board increased the policy rate to 17.50 percent at its July meeting. Economists taking part in the AA Finans expectations survey shared their predictions that the one-week repo auction rate (policy rate) will rise by 250 basis points to 20 percent.

The data to be announced later this month will also be followed by the markets.

On August 29, the results of the Economic Confidence Index will be released to the public. The Economic Confidence Index, to be announced in August, was 99.3 with a monthly decrease of 1.8 percent in July.

GDP AND FOREIGN TRADE STATISTICS WILL BE ANNOUNCED

Growth data for the second quarter of the year will also be released on August 31.

The gross domestic product (GDP) data for the period from April to June this year will be announced by the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) at 10:00.

The Turkish economy grew by 4 percent in the first quarter of the year, when the Kahramanmaraş-centered earthquakes were also experienced. Export and inflation data for August will also be closely monitored and will be announced in early September. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) had risen to 9.49 percent monthly and 47.83 percent annually in July.

The Ministry of Commerce will also release provisional foreign trade statistics for August in early September.

According to the General Trade System (GTS), in the January-July period, exports decreased 0.6 percent compared to the same period of the previous year and reached 143 thousand 435 million dollars, while imports increased 5, 1 percent to 217 thousand 52 million. Dollars

THE 3-YEAR ROADMAP OF THE ECONOMY IS CLEAR

In addition to the macroeconomic indicators, the PMP is expected to be announced and published in the Official Gazette in the first half of September.

With the MTP, Turkey’s 3-year roadmap will be drawn and targets for basic macro indicators such as inflation, employment, growth, exports and current account deficit for the period 2024-2026 will be determined.

Vice President Cevdet Yılmaz stated that during the MTP studies, they listened to the expectations and priorities of different segments of society regarding the new period in consultation meetings.

Stating that they have been conducting consultations with the representatives of the business world in the last period in the framework of the MTP preparations that they plan to announce in the first half of September, Yılmaz announced that they are about to finish the 12th 5-year Development. Plan that covers the period 2023-2028, and that will be presented to Parliament in October.

BUDGETARY STUDIES WILL SPEED UP AFTER THE PMP

With the announcement of the PMP, the preparations for the 2024 central government budget will also gain momentum.

The budget call, the budget preparation guides and the investment circular, the investment program preparation guide will be published in the Official Gazette by the Presidency until September 15 at the latest.

The central government budget for 2024, which will be prepared by the Ministry of Finance and the Strategy and Budget Presidency, will be submitted to the Grand National Assembly of Turkey by the Presidency until mid-October, and will be accepted after being discussed. . in the Plan and Budget Committee and in the General Assembly.

The Public Investment Program will be published in the Official Gazette with the decision of the President within 15 days following the entry into force of the Budget Law. (AA)