Confidence in the real sector fell in July

The Central Bank announced the Business Trend Statistics and the Real Sector Confidence Index for July.

Consequently, in July 2023, the seasonally adjusted Real Sector Confidence Index (RKGE-MA) decreased 0.8 points compared to the previous month and went to 104.9.

The Real Sector Confidence Index (ICR), which is not seasonally adjusted, fell 1.4 points compared to the previous month and went to 106.8.

If the index is above 100, the confidence of representatives of the real sector in economic activities has increased (optimistic), while an index below 100 indicates a declining outlook (pessimistic).

EVALUATIONS OF THE LAST THREE MONTHS

In the evaluations of the last three months, it was observed that the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in their production volume and amount of orders from the domestic market weakened compared to the previous month, while the trend in favor of those who reported an increase in their amount of export orders strengthened compared to the previous month.

It noted that assessments that current total orders are below seasonal normals weakened compared to the previous month, and assessments that current stocks of finished goods are above seasonal normals weakened compared to the previous month.

ASSESSMENTS FOR THE NEXT THREE MONTHS

In assessments for the next three months, the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in the number of domestic orders in the previous month has strengthened, while the trend in favor of those expecting an increase in production volume and the number of export orders in the previous month has weakened.

It was noted that the upward expectations regarding employment in the next three months and fixed capital investment expenses in the next twelve months also weakened.

It was observed that the trend was accentuated in favor of those who expected an increase in average unit costs in the next three months and those who reported an increase in the last three months.

It has been observed that expectations of an increase in the sale price in the next three months have also strengthened. At the end of the next twelve months, the producer’s annual inflation expectations (IPP) decreased 0.7 points with respect to the previous month and stood at 59.6 percent.