Consumer confidence fell sharply after the election

The Consumer Confidence Index calculated from the results of the Consumer Trends Survey conducted in cooperation with the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK) and the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), which was 85.1 in June, decreased by 5.9 percent in July to 80.1.

The index, which rose to 91.1 in May, when the elections were held, fell 12 percent in two months, with the increase in exchange rates and tax hikes after the elections.

With the monthly survey of consumer trends, the evaluation of the current situation of consumers in terms of their financial situation and general economy, their expectations for the future and their spending and saving trends is measured.

The consumer confidence index calculated from the survey results can take values ​​in the range of 0-200. A consumer confidence index above 100 indicates an optimistic state in consumer confidence, and an index below 100 indicates a pessimistic consumer confidence.

THE ELECTORAL INDICATOR ALSO WORKED ON MAY 14

We posted on Sozcu.com.tr on April 1, 2023, “Will TurkStat Election Indicator Work on May 14?” In the news headlined “A survey that can give an idea about the possible election results is the ‘Monthly Consumer Trend Survey’ conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute”, and we remind that the value of the Consumer Confidence Index is always 90 and above in all the elections the AKP has received in the last 20 years, and this value is always below 90 in the four elections in which the AKP did not get what it wanted in this period.

In May, the index increased 4.0 percent compared to the previous month and exceeded 90.

Here are the AKP voting rates in the elections held in 20 years and the value of the consumer confidence index in the month of the election:

Local elections of March 28, 2004:

AKP vote rate: 41.67%
Consumer confidence index value for March 2004: 104.9

AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election.

General Election of July 22, 2007:

AKP vote rate: 46.66%
Value of the consumer confidence index for July 2007: 93.9

With this electoral result, the AKP obtained the majority to form a government on its own.

Local elections of March 29, 2009:

AKP vote rate: 38.39%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2009: 76.9

In the 2009 elections, which suffered from an economic crisis in the world and in Turkey, the AKP’s votes decreased by 8.27 points compared to the 2007 general elections and 3.28 points compared to the 2004 local elections.

General Election of June 12, 2011:

AKP vote rate: 49.83%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2011: 98.0

In the 2011 elections, the AKP increased its vote rate by 3.25 points compared to the previous general elections and by 11.44 points compared to the previous local elections.

Local elections of March 30, 2014:

AKP vote rate: 42.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index in March 2014: 92.4

The AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election and increased its vote rate compared to previous local elections.

Presidential election of August 10, 2014:

Vote rate for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 51.79%
Value of the consumer confidence index in August 2014: 93.6

AKP Chairman Erdoğan won these elections and was elected president.

General Election of June 7, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 40.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2015: 89.6

The AKP lost the parliamentary majority to form a government on its own in these elections, and the elections were repeated on November 1.

General Election November 1, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 49.50%
Consumer confidence index value for November 2015: 95.2

With this election, the AKP regained the majority to form a government on its own.

Constitutional amendment referendum of April 16, 2017:

The yes vote rate demanded by AKP and MHP: 51.4%
Consumer confidence index value for April 2017: 92.0

The proposal of the Presidential Government System requested by AKP and MHP was accepted.

Presidential Election of June 24, 2018:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 52.6%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2018: 91.1

Erdogan was elected president for the second time and the presidential system of government was introduced.

Municipal elections of March 31, 2019:

AKP vote rate: 44.33%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2019: 81.1

The AKP lost many metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, in this election.

Istanbul Elections on June 23, 2019 (again):

AKP candidate voting rate: 44.98%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2019: 80.1

Although the AKP lost Istanbul once again in this election, the vote gap increased from 13,000 to 806,000.

General elections of May 28, 2023:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 52.1%
Consumer confidence index value for May 2023: 91.1

In the May 14 elections, the Popular Alliance won a majority in parliament, while Recep Tayyip Erdoğan won the presidency for the third time in the second round on May 28.

As of March 2023, the consumer confidence index was at 80.1. The value of the index has not reached the level of 90 for 56 months, that is, since July 2018, when the presidential system of government was introduced.

Although the AKP government signed many regulations, including raising the minimum pension to 7,500 TL and older retirees, to increase the voting rate, the consumer confidence index remained low due to the high cost of living, but rose to 87.5 in April and 91.1 in May.

Of course, the general state of the economy was not the only factor in the elections, and the reliability of the TURKSTAT poll is debatable. However, the election results and the Consumer Confidence Index table listed above give an idea of ​​the election results.