When will inflation be announced? What is the expectation of the inflation rate in June?

Inflation is rising every month, breaking record after record. With the June inflation, the July increase of civil servants and retirees, as well as retirees from SSK and Bağ-Kur, is of interest to millions of employees.

WHEN AND AT WHAT TIME WILL THE INFLATION RATE BE ANNOUNCED?

The inflation rate will be released on Wednesday, July 5 at 10:00 am.

HOW MUCH IS THE INFLATION RATE EXPECTED?

While monthly CPI estimates from 11 economists polled by Reuters were in the range of 2.50% to 5.50% increase, annual forecasts edged out between 36.30% and 40.30%.

The CPI is expected to rise 4.84% per month in June and decline to 39.5% per year with limited decline.

Inflation rose just 0.04% with Turkstat’s zero-price application after the government capped household natural gas use in May, causing annual inflation to fall by more than four percentage points to 39 .59% Core inflation “C”, which does not include energy prices, increased 4.25% monthly in May and amounted to 46.62% annual. Economists interpret the steps taken by economic officials after Erdogan’s re-election as Ankara’s return to orthodox economic policies. The strongest sign of this is seen as the Central Bank’s policy rate hike by 650 basis points to 15% last week. While noting that indicators point to an increase in the underlying trend of inflation, the CBRT said that the tight monetary policy will be gradually strengthened. However, investors are not fully convinced as the tightening is below market expectations. Some analysts argue that the CBRT, which lost its independence in recent years under Erdogan’s presidency, still has limited room for manoeuvre. Despite CBRT interventions in recent years, TL, which has lost more than 80% of its value since 2018, is expected to continue depreciating this year as well. Economists predict that the depreciation in TL will continue to increase inflation by increasing prices with the pass-through effect. In the Reuters poll, the median for year-end inflation forecast is 51.50%, while forecasts are in the range of 38.60% to 55.30%. After Erdogan’s calls for low interest rates despite rising inflation, the start of CBRT cuts at the end of 2021 led to a currency crisis. As a result, inflation began to decline after hitting a 24-year high of 85.51% in October. Reuters

ANADOLU AGENCY ANNOUNCES SURVEY OF JUNE INFLATION EXPECTATIONS

The AA Finans June Inflation Data Expectations Survey, to be announced by Turkstat on Wednesday, July 5, included the participation of 10 economists.

According to the survey, economists’ average inflation expectations for June were 3.91 percent. The inflation expectations of the economists surveyed for the month of June ranged from the lowest 2.25 percent to the highest 4.85 percent.

According to the economists’ average inflation expectations for June (3.91 percent), annual inflation, which was 39.59 percent the previous month, is estimated to drop to 38.20 percent.

On the other hand, economists’ inflation expectations for the end of 2023 decreased from 47.32 percent to 42.07 percent in June.

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.04 percent in May compared to the previous month. History Economists’ end-of-year inflation expectation (percentage) Monthly expectation (percentage) Realization (percentage) January 44.55 3.66 6.65 February 51.57 3.52 3.15 March 49.56 2.86 2.29 April 46 .26 2.65 2.39 May 47.32 0.07 0.04 June 42.0 7 3.91