Will the TURKSTAT election indicator work on May 14?

As the presidential and parliamentary elections, which will be held on May 14, approach, public opinion polls try to take the pulse of the citizenry.

Another survey that can give an idea about the possible results of the elections is the ‘monthly survey of consumption trends’ conducted by the Turkish Statistical Institute.

With this survey, TURKSTAT measures “assessments of consumers’ current situation with regard to their general financial and economic situation, their expectations for the future, and their spending and saving trends.”

The consumer confidence index calculated from the survey results can take values ​​in the range of 0-200. A consumer confidence index above 100 indicates an optimistic state in consumer confidence, and an index below 100 indicates a pessimistic consumer confidence.

When election results from the last 20 years are compared to the Turkstat Consumer Confidence Index, a remarkable result emerges.

The value of the consumer confidence index was always 90 or higher in all the elections in which the AKP got what it wanted in the last 20 years. In the four elections in which the AKP did not get what it wanted during this period, this value was always below 90.

Here are the AKP voting rates in the elections held in 20 years and the value of the consumer confidence index in the month of the election:

Local elections of March 28, 2004:

AKP vote rate: 41.67%
Consumer confidence index value for March 2004: 104.9

AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election.

General Election of July 22, 2007:

AKP vote rate: 46.66%
Value of the consumer confidence index for July 2007: 93.9

With this electoral result, the AKP obtained the majority to form a government on its own.

Local elections of March 29, 2009:

AKP vote rate: 38.39%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2009: 76.9

In the 2009 elections, which suffered from an economic crisis in the world and in Turkey, the AKP’s votes decreased by 8.27 points compared to the 2007 general elections and 3.28 points compared to the 2004 local elections.

General Election of June 12, 2011:

AKP vote rate: 49.83%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2011: 98.0

In the 2011 elections, the AKP increased its vote rate by 3.25 points compared to the previous general elections and by 11.44 points compared to the previous local elections.

Local elections of March 30, 2014:

AKP vote rate: 42.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index in March 2014: 92.4

The AKP won many metropolitan municipalities including Istanbul and Ankara in this election and increased its vote rate compared to previous local elections.

Presidential election of August 10, 2014:

Vote rate for Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 51.79%
Value of the consumer confidence index in August 2014: 93.6

AKP Chairman Erdoğan won these elections and was elected president.

General Election of June 7, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 40.87%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2015: 89.6

The AKP lost the parliamentary majority to form a government on its own in these elections, and the elections were repeated on November 1.

General Election November 1, 2015:

AKP vote rate: 49.50%
Consumer confidence index value for November 2015: 95.2

With this election, the AKP regained the majority to form a government on its own.

Constitutional amendment referendum of April 16, 2017:

The yes vote rate demanded by AKP and MHP: 51.4%
Consumer confidence index value for April 2017: 92.0

The proposal of the Presidential Government System requested by AKP and MHP was accepted.

Presidential Election of June 24, 2018:

Recep Tayyip Erdogan: 52.6%
Consumer confidence index value for June 2018: 91.1

Erdogan was elected president for the second time and the presidential system of government was introduced.

Municipal elections of March 31, 2019:

AKP vote rate: 44.33%
Value of the consumer confidence index for March 2019: 81.1

The AKP lost many metropolitan municipalities, including Istanbul and Ankara, in this election.

Istanbul Elections on June 23, 2019 (again):

AKP candidate voting rate: 44.98%
Value of the consumer confidence index for June 2019: 80.1

Although the AKP lost Istanbul once again in this election, the vote gap increased from 13,000 to 806,000.

General Election on May 14, 2023:

As of March 2023, the consumer confidence index stands at 80.1. The index value has not seen the 90 level for 66 months.

Although the AKP government has signed many regulations, including raising the minimum pension to 7,500 TL to increase the proportion of votes and those who are old enough to retire, the consumer confidence index remains low due to the high cost of life. .

Of course, the general state of the economy is not the only factor in the elections and it is debatable how reliable the TURKSTAT poll is. However, the election results and the Consumer Confidence Index table listed above give an idea of ​​possible election outcomes.