New York Times Notable Analysis of Earthquakes, Elections, and the Economy

The American newspaper The New York Times wrote an analysis article on the economy and elections after the Kahramanmaraş earthquakes in Turkey last week.

While the analysis states that the earthquake will determine Erdogan’s political fate ahead of presidential elections in May, the story said: “The earthquake will hurt economic growth by blaming Ankara with a shocking restructuring plan. It will also create a new challenge for the third four-year term of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,” the statement said.

The newspaper also stated that “as the Turkish authorities grapple with the grief of those who died in the deadliest earthquake of the century, President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan faces a parallel crisis: the earthquake disaster hit an economy in dire need of repair.”

‘ECONOMIC PROBLEMS ARE AGAINST’

While Turkey was claimed to have been rocked by the currency collapse and inflation reaching 85 percent, “security vulnerabilities ripped holes in the country’s balance sheet. It has plunged Turkish families and businesses into a cost of living crisis.

The analysis also claimed that Erdogan has improved relations with both the Gulf countries and Russia in recent years, using the terms “Erdogan’s unusual financial policies that exacerbate problems and strengthen his ties with Russia and the countries of the Gulf”.

EXPERT ANALYSIS

The opinions of experts who follow Turkey were also included in the analysis. The experts argued that the effect of the economy on the elections and the problems created by the earthquake will also be decisive in this regard.

Soner Çağaptay, Director of the Turkey Research Program at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, said: “The main focus is on the elections. “Erdogan has never won without growth and will look for a stabilizing effect when the restructuring starts,” he said.

“Economic activity can pick up quickly after the earthquake,” said Liam Peach, senior emerging markets economist at Capital Economics in London. “Any impact this quarter will be offset.”

‘AFTER 20 YEARS, ERDOĞAN IS POSSIBLE TO BE DEFEATED’

Marc Pierini, a strategist at Carnegie Europe and a former EU ambassador to Turkey, said Erdogan played on both sides of the Russia-Ukraine war to gain economic advantage. “Erdogan will use any means imaginable to stay in power,” Pierini said.

“Whatever the restructuring efforts and the flow of money created, the economic outlook is tied to the outcome of the upcoming elections,” Pierini said. Because for the first time in 20 years, there is the possibility of a defeat, ”he said.