Dollar, stock market, gold… What investment tool will come to light in 2023?

Among the returns of investment financial instruments in 2022, which we are preparing to leave behind, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul has become the only investment instrument that provides a real return against inflation, distinguishing itself from other instruments with a rate of return close to 200 percent. .

Source: Info Investment Daily Bulletin

Looking from the beginning of the year to today, while the return of the dollar/TL was 40%, the euro/TL offered a return of 32% to its investors. Although the ounce of gold has lost 1.71 percent against its investors since the beginning of the year, in parallel with the increase in exchange rates, the gram of gold has also provided its investors with gains of 38.58 percent. in the last year.

Leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin has also lost around 65 percent to its investor in dollar terms since the start of the year.

Source: Info Investment Daily Bulletin

In 2022, the global stock markets upset their investors as well. The Dow Jones Index has fallen 8.63 percent since the start of the year, while the S&P 500 has lost 19.33 percent. The Nasdaq index fell almost 33%.

Source: Info Investment Daily Bulletin

Assessing the performance of investment instruments for Sozcu.com.tr for 2022 and its expectations for 2023, market experts believe that the performance on Borsa Istanbul will not be at this level next year.

Analysts say that factors such as corporate profitability, US Federal Reserve monetary policy and the recession will reflect on the performance of investment instruments, with gold and foreign exchange rates likely to come to the fore. They can provide returns at the rate of inflation.

‘PERFORM LIKE 2022 IS HARD ON THE EXCHANGE’

In his assessment, Ahlatcı Investment Deputy General Manager Yücel Tonguç Erbaş stated that the stock market exceeded expectations in 2022, saying, “Although the FX-protected deposit system suppressed the exchange rate, the effect of the Horizontal sub-ounce pricing was felt on the gold side gram.”

Sharing his expectations for 2023, Erbaş used the following expressions;

“When we look at the annual returns of Borsa Istanbul in 2023, we see that the returns have decreased after years of good performance, such as 2022. For this reason, it is difficult to realize a performance like 2022 in Borsa Istanbul in the new year, the Central Bank will suspend interest rate cuts in the new year, growth momentum will wane at home and abroad, the effect of inflation on business balance sheets will be limited, and high interest rates and high interest rates will be seen. interest in global markets, as we think inflation will be partially permanent, we think stock market retreats may be permanent.

Gold may come to the fore in parallel with our bullish expectation, especially with the continuation of the horizontal upward movement in the exchange rate and the impact of demand that may come from the deterioration in risk perception below one ounce. On the other hand, we think that the rises parallel to inflation can continue for 2023”.

A DECREASE IN THE REAL PROFITS OF THE COMPANIES IS PROJECTED

Gedik’s director of investment research, Ali Kerim Akkoyunlu, also noted that Borsa Istanbul showed great performance in 2022, stating that the stock market was the most profitable instrument of the year.

Showing the low interest rate environment, high inflation, and the increase in the company’s profitability as the main reason for this, Akkoyunlu spoke as follows regarding the expectations for 2023;

“There is no change in the low interest-high inflation formula in the current environment. We will see a decline with the base effect, but even if there is 40-50 percent inflation in 2023, interest rates are still low.
Investors will want to protect their money.

But 2023 will be a little different. When the exchange rate does not increase at the same rate given the slowdown in economic growth and the increase in costs, the profitability of companies will be affected, starting with exporters. Banks profited from inflation-indexed bonds, but we expect up to a 25 percent decline in real terms in corporate profitability in 2023 as growth slows.

‘BENEFITS MUST BE REALIZED GRADUALLY’

Noting that Borsa Istanbul has reached saturation point in the medium term, Akkoyunlu noted that the upward trend may continue until March. On the other hand, stressing that investors must gradually materialize the gains they have obtained in the stock market, he shared the following evaluations on the performance of other instruments;

“The money that will come out of the stock market next year can go to places like gold, dollars, euros if investors do not buy. But it would be assertive to say that this investment vehicle will be popular in 2023 when there are so many unknowns. Investors should reduce their risk appetite a bit more, without expecting the same stock market performance next year.”

HIGHLIGHT OF PRECIOUS METALS IN PERIODS OF RECESSION

ALB investment securities and money markets specialist Şirin Sarı also stated that Borsa İstanbul’s performance in dollar terms is 100 percent this year’s outstanding investment vehicle.

Sarı asserted that the dollar suppressed other instruments in 2022 with the Fed’s interest rate hikes following the upward acceleration of gold prices and global geopolitical risks.

Highlighting concerns about the recession and the precious metals gold, silver, platinum and palladium in his 2023 expectations, Sarı used the following statements;

“Next year, investors expect a more dovish Fed and interest rate hikes to stop at 5.23 percent, and the dollar index to stabilize at some level. But the Fed is not changing its aggressive stance.

Therefore, the expectations of recession in the markets have strengthened. We’ll talk about commodity prices in 2023. When we look at past recessionary periods, we see that all four precious metals gained value.”

‘A NEW YEAR CAN START NEGATIVE AND END POSITIVELY’

Expressing that 2022 will be a difficult year for all asset prices due to interest rate hikes by central banks, commodity and futures specialist Zafer Ergezen also believes that 2023 will be a better year. in terms of global stock markets and asset prices.

Emphasizing that the Fed signaled a slowdown in interest rate hikes and investors who took a downside with falling inflation closed their positions, Ergezen continued his assessments as follows;

“New plans are being made for 2023. The pace of interest rate increases is slowing and the pressure on asset prices is easing with the decline in the dollar index. But interest rates will remain high, and a recession is almost inevitable. Therefore, it is a time to be selective both in the stock market and in other instruments.

Although the downside risks in the markets have subsided, I believe that the horizontal prices will continue. If the recession is more severe than expected, global stock markets may bottom again.

But especially the second half of 2023 will be very positive. We can start the new year on the downside and close it on the bright side towards the end of the year.”