Promised long-term Western support for Ukraine is bad news for the Kremlin, says defense analyst Patrick Bolder of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. And the prospect that Kiev will have F-16s in the long run doesn’t make the Russians happy, “because they see that an F-16 is quite effective and can certainly help in the counter-offensive.”
According to Bolder, Ukrainian President Zelensky can look back with satisfaction on the NATO summit in Vilnius. Even though he seemed exasperated on his first day and complained that there was no clearer vision of NATO membership, he returns to Kiev with solid Western security guarantees, the promise of a long-term commitment and a shopping cart full of money, guns and ammunition.
‘It is understandable that cluster munitions are used, even if 123 countries do not allow it’
Millions, tanks, patriots and anti-aircraft guns
What’s in that cart? $800 million in US aid, $700 million in German aid, including new Patriot systems, $170 million in French aid, £50 million for military equipment repairs, lots of ammunition for the Challenger tank, an air defense system from Norway and of course the F-16 coalition who decided to start F-16 training very quickly’.
According to Bolder, there is an understanding in the West that Ukraine cannot afford to stand still due to lack of equipment. Bolder thinks military goods will move east soon. Despite the fact that 123 countries have banned cluster munitions, there is also understanding for the American decision to supply this munition, according to Bolder.
Phased out
“The West has always had few supplies, we have not had large-scale conflicts on our territory in the last thirty years.” And so not only have inventories been reduced, but little has been invested in their production. The West is now trying to catch up, “but the shelves are empty and what is still on the shelves in America for this artillery is cluster munitions.” The analyst notes that those munitions are particularly effective against troop concentrations. “It’s understandable that it’s being used, even if it’s not allowed by 123 countries.”
Meanwhile, F-16 fighter jets have also been promised, as well as pilot training. According to Bolder, it may take some time for these commitments to really take shape. He indicates the maintenance and training center that is being set up in Romania. “But getting the F-16s to work from Ukraine is a step further.” The Ukrainian Defense Minister expects the first F-16s to take off from Ukrainian soil in March next year.
‘Russians certainly don’t like this’
Russia is viewing these developments with suspicion. According to Bolder, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov’s statement that Russia views the F-16 as a nuclear threat should be seen in this light. “Obviously it’s the Kremlin’s usual rhetoric that scares us, but they certainly don’t like it, because they see that an F-16 is quite effective and can certainly help in the operation to liberate Ukraine.”
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
