“If a Western army enters Ukraine, Russia will likely be defeated much more quickly.”
Top world leaders agree that negotiations on accelerated accession with Ukraine cannot be discussed now. The mere fact that NATO’s Article 5 applies immediately is an insurmountable obstacle, says Hammelburg. “So NATO is at war with Russia and this must be avoided at all costs.”
Notable was the moment earlier in the day when Zelensky thanked British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak in reciprocal conversation. British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace had chided Zelensky and said he could show some gratitude for the long-term aid package. And he took it to heart. By now Zelensky and Sunak seem to be best friends.’
G7 framework
It is not entirely clear in Hammelburg which engagements Zelensky ultimately won. In any case, a G7 framework provides long-term support, modeled on the US relationship with Israel. America has a special relationship with Israel. There, in terms of defense, basically everything the Israelis want the Americans to do, except boots on the ground. This is a construction that the G7 more or less wants to apply to Ukraine.’
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It may not be quite what Zelensky was hoping to hear. However, he will have to be satisfied, especially as long as Joe Biden is the American president, says Hammelburg: it is precisely Biden who has dashed the hopes of Ukrainian membership of NATO. Otherwise, Americans are exceptionally generous to Ukraine. “Zelensky has doubts about what will happen at the end of the Biden period.”
For now, Zelensky will have to settle for a long-term G7 deal, to which the Americans must also commit. That’s actually quite a lot, but clearly not enough for Zelensky, says Hammelburg. What he would really help is yes boots on the ground; if a western army enters Ukraine, Russia is likely to be defeated much more quickly. But all this is unthinkable. And that’s a good thing too.’