Ukraine will finally receive F-16 fighter jets and the necessary training of the country’s pilots. It was unthinkable three months ago, says Ten Broeke. Today, Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky is coming to the NATO summit in Vilnius for a series of bilateral talks, including with US President Joe Biden. What else will Zelensky do for Ukraine?
ATACMS game changer
Arms, security guarantees and the prospect of possible NATO membership in the future, thinks Ten Broeke. According to the director, Zelensky hopes for the delivery of ATACMS, missiles with a range of 300 kilometers capable of hitting the Crimea. Although the French and the British have promised missiles capable of hitting targets 250 and 200 kilometers away respectively, they are not yet money changers such as ATACMS.
The Americans are reluctant to supply these long-range missiles precisely because they could hit Crimea and cause a further escalation. According to Ten Broeke, the Americans are trying to manage the war ‘step by step as much as they can’, taking into account a possible nuclear escalation.
Another burning issue: Ukraine demands tough security guarantees from NATO, which NATO does not want to grant for fear of going to war with Russia. What options does Ukraine have then? Ten Broeke thinks of a guarantee of security that the United States also gives to its ally Israel, “that is to say that they will supply an infinite number of weapons as long as this is necessary for the security of the country”.
None Article 5
An Article 5 guarantee, in which an attack on one NATO member state counts as an attack on all member states, is certainly not an option for Kiev. The prospect of membership is being offered, but this time without the so-called “interim phase of the MAP”, as promised to Ukraine in 2000: the membership action plan. ‘This is a path to membership, but it has always served primarily as a stumbling block. This is now skipped, so Ukrainians get a clearer timeline, maybe even with a date.’
What Zelensky already has in his pocket: the American pledge that the country – despite world disapproval – will receive cluster munitions. Those munitions have been banned by about 100 countries, including the Netherlands, due to the great danger to civilians. “It’s a prohibited weapon, it’s a very bad weapon that (…) can generally lead to a lot of civilian casualties as well.”
Shelves and minefields
According to Ten Broeke, the United States will provide that ammunition because American arsenals are starting to run out and because the Ukrainian offensive is progressing slowly due to well-placed Russian positions. Ten Broeke points out that there are many minefields and that cluster munitions are also very effective against them. “Some of those cluster munitions could be used to clear those minefields.”
Wednesday bilateral day
That the second day of the NATO summit in Vilnius is all about the bilateral issue, says BNR Europe correspondent Geert Jan Hahn, reporting on the summit from Lithuania. However, the discussions are not limited to the war in Ukraine, China and the situation in the Indo-Pacific are also discussed. “But it mainly revolves around meetings with President Zelenski: Zelenski meets Olof Scholz, Rishi Sunak, Justin Trudeau, the Japanese Prime Minister and US President Joe Biden.”
Although Zelensky is dissatisfied with NATO commitments to date, he hopes for more US weapons. Hahn quotes the NATO statement saying there will be more military support for Ukraine: “no guarantees, but weapons”.
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