The sun is starting to shine for Ukraine. Yesterday it was announced that the Americans have abandoned their obligation to comply with the so-called ‘membership action plan’, says defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague. Initially, US President Joe Biden said he does not see Ukraine joining NATO anytime soon.
Had the Americans complied with their obligation to comply with the membership action plan, Ukraine’s road to NATO would only have gotten longer. “But once this obstacle is overcome, NATO will be free to come up with some sort of step-by-step plan to make Ukraine a member,” Wijninga explains. “And that’s a very positive development.”
“It’s a very positive development”
Incidentally, Ukraine cannot join without complying with certain regulations, Wijninga says. “The surprising thing is that many of NATO’s criteria correspond almost one-to-one with the criteria set by the EU,” she continues. ‘And as you know: Ukraine also wants to become a member of the EU. So you could actually go through those steps while the conflict is still going on.’
War
But herein lies the crux, according to Wijninga. As long as Ukraine is at war, there can be no EU or NATO membership. “A prospective member doesn’t have to be at war,” he says. ‘Because then you will have to deal with Article 5. Then all member states have to assist Ukraine with people and equipment.’
Wijninga does not dare to say when Ukraine will actually be able to attempt membership. Especially since it is not entirely clear how long the war will last. Of course everyone hopes it will end in the near future, he concludes. “Maybe a year, maybe a year and a half. And along with that, you may see the next, final step towards membership. But in reality it is only coffee grounds».
Source: BNR

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