Russia and Ukraine accuse each other of attacking the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. “The military often assumes the worst-case scenario,” says defense specialist Peter Wijninga. But he hears from experts that we needn’t fear a disaster the size of Chernobyl.
According to the Russians, Ukrainian soldiers are threatening to hit the nuclear power plant during the bombing. And according to the Ukrainian secret services, Moscow planned an attack and even explosives were attached to the reactor. In addition, a special American aircraft capable of measuring radiation has arrived in the region.
“The Russians are firing at the Ukrainians from near the power plant, and obviously they are returning fire.”
But despite these signs, Wijninga, who is affiliated with the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, doesn’t know if things will go so fast. “The military often assumes the worst case scenario,” says the defense specialist. ‘Just because the consequences can be so big, they play it safe. That includes that plane. They want to know in which area the radiation would spread to warn and evacuate people.
The Russians are holding the center hostage
These precautions don’t make a nuclear disaster more likely, Wijninga says. It also seems unlikely that Ukraine itself will carry out an attack. “The Russians are holding the power plant hostage, so to speak,” he says. “They’re shooting at the Ukrainians from near the center, and of course they’re returning fire. With sniper guns, of course. The Russians then claim that Ukraine is endangering the plant and exploit this in their rhetoric.
Five of the six reactors are shut down
Wijninga acknowledges that the consequences of a disaster would be enormous, but hears from nuclear experts that if things go wrong we shouldn’t expect a disaster on the scale of Chernobyl. ‘Five of the six reactors have already been completely shut down. If they were hit, only a fraction of the radiation would be released.’
More radiation would be released from the sixth reactor, which is currently cooling down. ‘But the damage would be limited to an area of a few tens of kilometres. And it might be enough for residents to keep doors and windows closed.”
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Source: BNR

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