This means Stoltenberg’s term has been extended for the third time, meaning the former Norwegian prime minister will have completed ten years as NATO secretary general next year. “Only Josef Luns has been in that place longer,” says de Vries.
Rest and safety
According to De Vries, the war in Ukraine means it is not a good time to change general secretary. According to him, Stoltenberg provides peace and stability, and is also liked by many. ‘If a new Secretary-General were to come, he or she would have to get used to it again and countries would have to get used to him or her. It’s better to have someone who knows how to help you than having to deal with a new general secretary in the midst of a difficult period.’
However, a few potential names have been mentioned as possible successors, says De Vries. “Like that of Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen. That was actually the more serious option, but other than that there weren’t enough candidates.’
More choice next year
Whether the list of serious successors will be longer next year? “This is expected,” says De Vries. «The first name that strikes the most is that of Ursula von der Leyen. You are still president of the European Commission, but the European elections will take place in May and June next year, after which the Commission will also be renewed. This could mean that Ursula von der Leyen is a candidate.”
According to De Vries, Von der Leyen has the disadvantage of not having been prime minister. “It’s not a law, but it’s become a bit of an unwritten rule.” The fact that she was Secretary of Defense, and that she is a woman, could work in her favor. Never before has a woman been Secretary General of NATO.
Also, Spanish Prime Minister Sánchez is mentioned. “It would also be interesting because so far most of the general secretaries came from the Benelux or Scandinavia. Never anyone from Southern Europe. With this, Sánchez has the best credentials.’