The chance of Russian President Vladimir Putin being impeached is very small. If he were to leave the field, most likely his place will be taken by a new dictator. “Russia will remain authoritarian, unless a miracle happens,” says Rob de Wijk.
These insights are based on historical figures. They come from The perilous path to a better Russia in Foreign Affairs. A historical comparison with other countries shows that the chance of Russia remaining a “custom dictatorship” is about 92%. “The most promising path to a liberal Russia would be through internal protests,” says Arend Jan Boekestijn. “But even so, the chances are slim: Only one in five longtime authoritarian leaders will be deposed by mass protests.”
De Wijk calls the historical analysis a “good counterweight” to all the people who say that a coup d’état will take place at any moment, that democratization will begin in Russia or that Putin’s entourage will abandon him. ‘Here it is shown numerically that the chance is small. The bottom line is: Russia will remain authoritarian, or a miracle will have to happen.’
Dependence
What would make the possibility of a coup inside the Kremlin even smaller is the fact that the “Putin system” is a so-called “established personal autocracy”. ‘This means that if you are an oligarch or a member of the economic or party elite, then everything goes through Putin,’ explains Boekestijn. “In such systems, the longer such an ‘established’ autocrat is in power, the more people depend on him, the more difficult it is to depose him.”
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Even though the large advancing military column of the Wagner Group made it clear last weekend that major changes are possible even outside Putin’s influence, the chance of the Russian president being impeached remains very small. And if that were to happen, the chance of Russia democratizing is therefore very limited. “I think you can really forget that,” says De Wijk.
War
Even of autocratic leaders who lose a war, only about half lose power. Should Putin be replaced by the next dictator during the war in Ukraine, there is a very good chance that his successor will continue the war. “But one can also come to the conclusion that the costs of the war so far outweigh the benefits that one stops for this reason and for the sake of one’s future position,” says De Wijk. “But you don’t have to.”
According to De Wijk, the chance that the war in Ukraine will stop with a regime change is considerably greater if a technocrat takes Putin’s place than if an ultranationalist, a patriot, comes to power. “Those patriots are just blinded and keep fighting. Those technocrats make a decision in which Russia’s interests and their interests are central.’
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
