After the failed putsch, the Wagner Group’s role in Russia and Ukraine has come to an end. But what will become of Wagner’s activities in Africa? Several thousand Wagner fighters are estimated to be active in eight African countries. “Wagner members work there as instructors, of course this will continue,” Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said. But is it really so?
While the mercenary club is still firmly in control in some African countries, the Wagner group has always worked in tandem with the Russian state. But anyone who has seen and heard about the Wagner Group in recent days has good reason to doubt that such a collaboration is still so evident.
“The leaders of African countries have to decide for themselves whether they want to continue working with the Russian mercenary group Wagner,” the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Wednesday.
Operations
What exactly Lavrov meant by “operations in Mali and the Central African Republic” is still unclear. It may refer to a continuation of the situation before Saturday. Before the uprising, Wagner and the Kremlin worked closely to get and keep both African countries within the Russian sphere of influence (with economic aid, arms supplies and training of the army, police and security services , ed), uranium, diamonds and lithium mining.
In Africa, Wagner and the Kremlin are so closely intertwined that some analysts doubt whether the two sides can extricate themselves.
Big cash flows
It is unclear what exactly was the key to distributing these immense cash flows, but both Wagner and the Kremlin will have benefited enormously from them. Those huge financial interests could be at stake now that Prigozhin has fallen out of favor with Putin. A suspension of Wagner’s operations in Africa could have major consequences for the group’s finances. Last year Washington accused the mercenaries of funding the fighting in Ukraine with proceeds from African mines.
Business as usual
Several thousand Wagnerians are estimated to be active in about eight African countries. The question is what they will do. Will they remain loyal to their boss Prigozhin, continue on their own, or will they swear allegiance to Putin or the host country’s government? ‘It is unclear exactly how this is handled in Africa and under what authority they operate now,’ says Professor Mirjam de Bruijn of the Africa Study Centre. According to De Bruijn, French Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna is right when she says that we should be more concerned about Wagner’s fighters in Africa than their colleagues in Ukraine.
However, according to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Prigozhin’s uprising “will not change Russia’s ties with its allies”. And while both Mali and the Central African Republic remained silent as Prigozhin advanced on Moscow, many foreign partners have expressed support for President Putin, according to Lavrov.
Unpredictable evils
But according to an analyst at the Brussels School of International Studies, the consequences are unpredictable for a country like Mali, where some 1,500 Wagner fighters and the Malian army are still waging a reign of terror on the Malian population.
“They also have a leading role in the missions in central Mali, where a lot of violence is used against the population.”
“The exact consequences for Mali will depend on largely unknown factors, such as organizational autonomy and Wagner’s chain of command, and of course whether or not things escalate between Putin and Wagner,” the analyst told Al Jazeera. In any case, the Mali regime finds itself in a difficult diplomatic position when it has to choose between Wagner or Putin: last year Moscow promised the country $100 million in fuel, fertilizers and food.
“The Malian state is now engaged in a double partnership, with the Russian state – Putin’s camp – and with the Wagner group – Prigozhin’s camp. It hasn’t made much of a difference so far, but that could change if the two camps don’t reconcile in the long run,” political scientist Oumar Berté said in an interview with radio station FRANCE 24.
The BBC quotes a UN diplomatic source as believing that if the Wagner Group were to be completely disbanded, its units in Africa would no longer be supplied by Russian authorities. Although Wagner’s troops in Africa are paid for by a Prigozhin estate, they use Russian army equipment.
“If those people are no longer in charge, what will happen?”
And the winner is…
In any case, the Kremlin appears to have won the dispute in the Central African Republic. A senior official in Central African President Touadéra’s cabinet told French radio station France24 that Russia would continue to operate in the Central African Republic, “with or without Wagner”.
The Central African Republic has signed a defense agreement with the Russian Federation, not with Wagner. Russia has a subcontract with Wagner. If Russia no longer agrees with Wagner, she will send us a new contingent.’
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
