Reznikov points out that most of the soldiers have been deployed. A major offensive has yet to take place with newly trained brigades in the West equipped with modern tanks and weapon systems. “In fact we saw very little of those nine brigades,” Bolder says. These are “wisely kept in reserve”.
The counter-offensive consists of small victories for the moment, but according to Bolder, 300 square kilometers of territory have now been reclaimed. “This is more than what the Russians captured in their January offensive.”
To surprise
However, according to Bolder, the small successes are absolutely necessary to keep the remaining Russian reserves occupied, so to speak. “They want the Russians to capture somewhere and then strike in a different spot with the Western-trained soldiers.”
According to Bolders, the ‘banana-shaped’ front runs east and south of Ukraine. It is important for the Ukrainian military to maintain the initiative. “You can surprise the Russians with this. That match is now being played, Ukraine now has to show that trick.’
‘Ukraine really needs to deal with that blow this summer’
Coming months
“Ukraine really needs to strike that blow this summer,” Bolder thinks. Not only due to the sharp deterioration of weather conditions in autumn, but also under pressure from the West. “We also expect something to happen. Hundreds of billions of euros and dollars have been spent on Ukraine. Now they have to prove they can do something sensible with it.’
The possible accession of Ukraine to NATO is also decisive in this sense. For example, it must be clear what commitments are being made to Ukraine and what security guarantees are being given. “This shouldn’t be as vague as what was done for Georgia and Ukraine in 2008. This only resulted in Russia starting a war in these countries.”
Prigozin
The question is whether the mutiny of Wagner mercenaries led by Yevgeny Prigozhin has any effect on the fighting at the front. Not yet, but maybe in the long run, thinks Bolder. The more than 4,000 soldiers who went from Rostov to Moscow were not from the front but were in a so-called assembly area. “The question is what will happen to the Wagner soldiers. Will they be included in the Russian army and what about their motivation?’
Wagner’s complaints about the Russian military are not out of the question. And on the march to Moscow, several Wagner soldiers were killed by the Russian army. “This affects the willingness of the Russian regular army to accept those Wagner soldiers. The last word on this has not yet been said.’
“This is not easily forgiven Prigozhin”
Prigozhin is now in Belarus. Neither he nor his soldiers will feel safe there. It is therefore questionable whether the soldiers will actually set up their tents there. “We watched a huge comedy from Putin and Lukashenko. I find it all hard to believe,’ says Bolder. Putin has a big credibility problem at home. He had to choose between his defense minister Shoygu and Prigozhin. This caused a lot of bad blood with Putin, Prigozhin will not be forgiven for this just like that.’
Spoiled food
An investigation was also launched into Wagner’s parent company, Concord. That company supplies meals to the Russian military, among other things. “However, they were often very spoiled.”
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