Incidentally, it took Putin a long time to talk about the rebellion. According to defense specialist Peter Wijninga of the Center for Strategic Studies in The Hague, it was unwise to wait that long. He gave an angry speech on Saturday morning and then disappeared from the radar, fueling all kinds of speculation. ‘And then an agreement comes out (…) that at least the Wagner fighters escape the ball. This is inconsistent and possibly weak.’ The fact that Prigozhin is the first to break the silence also testifies to Putin’s poor leadership. Wijninga thinks the Russian president is at a disadvantage.
In his speech, the Russian president also thanked the Wagner soldiers who had prevented the escalation. He called “most” Wagner patriots. They would be allowed to go to Belarus, as agreed with Belarusian President Aleksandr Lukashenko, but could also sign up with the Russian military or return to their families. Remarkable: Putin did not mention Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin, who led the mutiny.
Putin is behind on points
It is not yet clear where the latter is at the moment. Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name anywhere in his speech. “He didn’t on Saturday morning and Prigozhin didn’t even mention his name.” However, Putin reiterated that the organizers of the uprising will be punished. “Then you definitely have Prigozhin,” says Wijninga.
Country divided
In his speech, the Russian president also thanked ordinary Russians for their “patriotism” during the uprising. According to Putin, the armed uprising would still have been crushed, even if the troops advanced further towards Moscow. But Russia is not such a unit at all, Wijninga thinks. “Wagner and Prigozhin were very popular,” Wijninga says, pointing to television images in which retreating mutineers are pushed back by viewers. “There is no unity in the nation at all. I think the country is very divided, only Putin is trying to fill those cracks.’
Injury
What has undoubtedly done a lot of damage is Prigozhin’s speech accusing the Russian leadership of drawing the country into war. Wijninga calls this a major turning point because “it is the first time the Russian people have been told the truth about the war in this way”. This is something Putin cannot justify. He can never reverse it. He may say that Prigozhin lied, but I don’t think he will really be believed.’
Wave army
Wijninga also finds it significant that the Russian military did not actually intervene. Though Putin claims he did not intervene to prevent bloodshed, the fact remains that Russian border troops simply surrendered to Wagner’s advance. “At least part of the Russian military has taken a wait-and-see attitude to see how it ends.”
Putin also held a meeting last night with a number of people from the security services and ministers, including Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu. Along with army commander Valeri Gerasimov, he was also the man targeted by Prigozhin on Saturday. Putin thanked the ministers present for their actions on Saturday, so there is nothing to indicate that Shoigu will have to step down anytime soon. It was Shoigu’s first public appearance since the Wagner rebellion.
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