It’s still too early to talk about civil war in Russia. The current ascendancy of the Wagner Group is too small for that. Only when developments truly take on a life of their own can a snowball effect arise, says Frans Osinga, a former war studies professor.
In this phase, according to Osinga, one can at most speak of the omen of civil war: mutiny, or imminent coup d’état. When people see the shift in power, it can get exciting, but one has to wonder if Wagner’s army’s current size and “institutional base” are enough to spark a real civil war, Osinga says.
No coups
Furthermore, there is no talk of a coup yet, says Osinga. This usually happens from people around the great leader and this is not Prigozhin. “It’s actually more of a feud between mafia gangs: a rebel leader against corrupt leaders who have a bone to pick. But that it’s a huge weakening of Putin’s position of power, that goes without saying.”
The very fact that Prigozhin undermined Moscow’s narrative that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was a corrupt attack by power leaders and had nothing to do with Russia’s reunification has undermined the authority of Putin. Not that Ukraine is necessarily better off if Prigozhin takes the helm of the Kremlin, Osinga says. “He stoked ultranationalism and demanded the right weapons and ammunition. If he comes to power, there will be a call for further escalation.”
“It’s actually more of a feud between mafia gangs: a rebel leader against corrupt leaders who have a bone to drop with each other”
The approaching uncertain period is in principle favorable for Ukraine. But according to Osinga, this depends on the loyalty of Russian commanders and units. “If commanders no longer trust each other, the front can collapse quite quickly.”
Not much has changed in Russia’s activities at the front. That’s probably why Ukraine is still reluctant, she suspects. “Maybe it will give us a breather and some Russian units will still refuse to take up arms.”
A shovel on top
There’s a good chance the West will now step up its support for Ukraine, Osinga says. The NATO summit is in Vilnius in three weeks, so current developments could put the agenda item of Ukraine’s accession in a different light. “It could also increase the willingness to occupy land first.”
Foreign commentator Bernard Hammelburg sees a big “but” in this regard. “If there is ever a ceasefire where Russia keeps some territory and Ukraine joins NATO, what will you do if a missile lands on western Ukraine? According to Osinga, a possible solution lies in a multinational company coalition of the willing. It must be able to prevent missile attacks. “It is a fluid context and the current situation in Russia can fuel this option. It felt like a stalemate, but it can be broken again.’
Listen to the full conversation here
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
