If the Wagner group’s advance stops, the mercenary army will no longer gain momentum, says Mart de Kruif, former ground forces commander on the BNR. “Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin needs to keep making progress, and that will only work if Russian units side with him.”
Prigozhin’s progress is comparable to “from Amsterdam to Paris” in one day. Then the action must be well prepared, says De Kruif. ‘We need to have supplies, logistics and fuel in order. It’s amazing that you can make such great progress so quickly.’
The big question, however, is what Russian soldiers will do, De Kruif says. “There are already rumors that the airmobile brigade has refused to take up arms. We’ll see what happens in the next few hours. But you clearly see the panic on the Russian side.’
“Probably more popular than Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu”
In any case, Prigozhin will have to contend with a huge force majeure from the Russian side. For the Wagner group to be successful, Russian troops must largely “keep on the ground”. National Guard and Secret Service units are militias controlled by individuals. So if you look at it, Prigozhin probably won’t make it.
“But he bets on what Napoleon did in 1815, that not the generals, but the soldiers and officers will support him. And this is possible, because he is probably more popular than Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu.’
Effect on the Ukrainian offensive
The question is what the ultimate effect will be on the ongoing Ukrainian offensive. According to foreign affairs commentator Bernard Hammelburg, the main question is whether quality trumps quantity. Ukraine gets huge support, but Russia has an endless supply of people. They can mobilize a few hundred thousand more people, well trained or not. You can sacrifice those people, even if you have less good weapons. But that gets complicated.’
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
