According to Bolder, if the reports are correct, the threat to the nuclear power plant is a way for the Russians to increase pressure on Ukraine. “If they can create a nuclear accident here, they can blame Ukraine for it too.”
A power plant attack can have dire consequences, says Bolder. “Just think of the Chernobyl scenario. Early in the war, we saw the Russians bury their soldiers in the radioactive soil around Chernobyl. According to Bolder, there is no doubt that many soldiers were radioactively contaminated and fell ill. “Of course we don’t hear about it, the Russians are silent.”
“If they can create a nuclear accident here, they can blame Ukraine for that too”
Kakhovka dam
The explosion at the Kakhovka dam on June 6 not only caused enormous ecological damage, but also caused the deaths of people. “They don’t hesitate to make victims on their side,” Bolder points out. According to him, the Russian military indicates that the nuclear power plant is not safe for future use, which is in line with the goal of making important Ukrainian infrastructure unusable for a long time. The destruction of the nuclear power plant, which resulted in a large radioactively contaminated area, is of little interest to the Russians because it is not on their territory. But Ukraine will suffer for years to come.’
Observers from the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA are constantly present at the nuclear power plant, but the question is whether they can play a role. “They have limited access and their freedom is severely restricted,” Bolder points out. The situation around the nuclear power plant can become risky in another way as well. The tank with cooling water destined for the power plant is still intact after the explosion at the Kakhovka dam. “But according to Ukrainian sources, mines have also been planted there. If they are blown up, cooling water will no longer be available and a risky situation will arise around the nuclear power plant.’
Bridge in the Crimea
Not much is known about the attack on the bridge to Crimea. Russia says the damage to the bridge is the result of a Ukrainian attack with a Storm Shadow missile. That sounds plausible, but ultimately it doesn’t really matter, thinks Bolder. “It’s mainly about the consequences of the damage,” he emphasises. Crimea can be reached by land with only a few roads, one of which is the Crimean Bridge. That bridge was hit by a big fire with a lot of damage last October, probably from an exploded truck. “After that, that bridge was out of action for months.”
With the alleged Ukrainian attack it becomes clear that Crimea is not safe, not only for the inhabitants but also for the Russian soldiers present. “They depend on supplies across those few bridges, which is a logistical nightmare.”
President Zelensky said earlier this week that the counteroffensive is progressing slowly. The Russians have built many defense lines in recent months, making it difficult for Ukraine to move forward. “It is possible that it will be easier to isolate Crimea than to liberate it,” Bolder thinks.
Lviv
On the other hand, by deploying Storm Shadow missiles, Ukraine has shown that it is capable of carrying out attacks on positions behind the front lines. Bolder calls it essential. “You not only have to fight your opponent on the front, but also in depth to prevent the front from being resupplied. The attacks on the ammunition depot earlier this week and on fuel depots show that this is effective.’ At the same time, Russia is carrying out similar attacks. For example, rockets landed on an airfield near Lviv in the west. “The Russians are trying to attack the Ukrainian planes. The battle looks very different now.’