German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in a speech that he wants to offer Ukraine long-term security guarantees but does not want to allow quick NATO membership. This is a cold shower for Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky, says war studies professor Frans Osinga. “This is really a setback.”
The various NATO member states are currently in a diplomatic dilemma, Osinga notes. “Eastern European countries want to go much further and even the British said today that they don’t expect such a long admission process for Ukraine.” At the same time, it seems that Germany is one of the countries that will stand in the way as long as Ukraine is occupied by Russia.
Iron Curtain
Analysts criticize this rhetoric, saying it effectively gives Russia a veto over Ukraine’s future NATO membership. “Because as long as Russia allows the war to continue there, Ukraine will never become a member,” Osinga explains. Scholz advocates continued military support, so that Russia is completely exhausted. But according to Osinga there is a ‘dilemma that has not yet fully crystallized’.
“West Germany was admitted to NATO while the conflict was boiling”
For example, French analysts draw a comparison between the current situation and East and West Germany in the 1950s. “Then West Germany was also admitted, while of course there was simply a dormant conflict,” Osinga clarified. “The Berlin Wall that was built there formed a great Iron Curtain and West Germany was still admitted.” According to Osinga, the analogy therefore suggests that there are indeed possibilities to circumvent the blockade that is now being requested.
Source: BNR
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