While Kiev and Moscow are already sharing reports about the gains they’ve made on the battlefield, we actually know very little about the battle now raging in eastern Ukraine, Wijninga says. “All those messages and fragments that we see say nothing about real success or defeat.”
“It doesn’t look like this is the big attack”
The defense specialist currently sees three main operations: near Bachmut, in Donetsk province and in the western part of Zaporizhia province. “It doesn’t look like this is the big attack,” he says. “But they are important operations.”
Wijninga notes that Ukraine has not yet deployed all of its brigades in these three attacks. “I think these operations are a prelude to a major offensive.”
Buried along the edge of the forest
According to him, it is very difficult to break through the Russian lines, especially in the south. “Ukrainians try to do it very carefully, with as few losses as possible,” says Wijninga. “But it’s time-consuming work. So don’t expect big territorial gains too quickly.’
The first line through which the Ukrainians have to pass, the Russians dug along forest edges or undergrowth rows around farmland. “They went deep,” says Wijninga, “with trenches and trenches.”
The first order of business is to delete that line. Only then will the bigger fights follow, according to Wijninga. “The second line is probably the most heavily armed and best protected. This is really going to be the big fight.’
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