Although it is not clear exactly how much territory the Ukrainians have reconquered, according to Wijninga it is estimated at around 100 square kilometers. “But that doesn’t say much,” he says. “Images have surfaced today of Ukrainians with Russian artillery emplacements, meaning they have penetrated deeper than previously thought. Such artillery weapons are often found about ten or fifteen kilometers behind the front.’
“Such weapons are often found ten to fifteen kilometers behind the front”
According to Wijninga, it could also mean that there are Ukrainian troops in the vicinity of the power plant, where fierce fighting is taking place. He then understands that the International Atomic Energy Agency has decided not to visit the plant.
Access
Furthermore, it remains to be seen whether the International Atomic Energy Agency will regain access to the facility. Wijninga says it is entirely possible that the agency will not be allowed to return to Zaporizhia until the Ukrainians have retaken the power plant. “As long as there’s fighting in that area, it’s not safe to join a civilian club,” says Wijninga.
All the more so as in time of war no waivers will be made by either side for such controls and considerable security will be required for the regulators. ‘Maybe the Ukrainians want it, but the Russians certainly don’t,’ concludes Wijninga. They are eager to keep the plant and will defend it to the hilt. According to the Russians, any disruption works in favor of the Ukrainians, so they don’t want it.’