An announcement is expected at the next NATO summit in Vilnius, but before that Turkey, Sweden and NATO will meet once again. According to De Hoop Scheffer, that could be Erdogan’s last push. “There are two possibilities,” he says. Erdogan – as we know him – is a major and influential player. But also someone from whom you never know exactly which side he will take ».
“Erdogan is someone you never know exactly which path he will take”
Therefore, according to De Hoop Scheffer, one must realize that Erdogan can also put his foot down, ‘to show that he is the boss’, he says. While De Hoop Scheffer neither hopes nor expects this scenario, he points out that this is how it could play out. “I think the July conversation will be used in the stage of non-public democracy,” he continues. ‘In which possible concessions will be discussed.’
F-16
According to De Hoop Scheffer, the delivery of American F-16s to Turkey was used as a possible exchange for a deal by Erdogan. But it remains to be seen whether the United States is actually willing to do it. “I think it is very important for President Biden to welcome Sweden into NATO at least in Vilnius,” he says. ‘Because if it doesn’t happen there, it’s still a development Putin will be extremely happy with. NATO doesn’t want this for Putin, and it shouldn’t be.’
De Hoop Scheffer believes that unity should radiate from above to Vilnius, “more than ever”. Especially since a war is being fought on European territory very close to the Baltic states. “And we won’t give Vladimir Putin gifts by continuing to disagree on Sweden’s accession, now that Finland has already joined,” he says.
Complicated
But, De Hoop Scheffer points out, Erdogan also plays a special role in the war in Ukraine, in connection with Turkey’s abstention from sanctions against Russia. “Because it contributed to the cereal agreement,” concludes De Hoop Scheffer. “In short: he has a very complex, but influential position on the whole. And this political turmoil over Sweden’s accession is part of it.’