Dubbelboer isn’t so afraid of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, but rather of a “miss” like the 2001 near-collision between an American and a Chinese fighter jet over the South China Sea. According to him, what makes the situation different is that 22 years later, China is in the game differently and has become much more powerful militarily. And there are major interests at stake. “The situation is so much more tense right now than it was then that I find that really worrying.”
According to Van Hooft, military tension between the two superpowers has been building for 20 to 25 years. “The United States and China have been preparing for war for decades, and now at an increasing pace.” For example, China is building some long-range missiles to destroy US aircraft carriers and with which it can strike US airports and ports while the US is also in an arms race.
Biden goes far beyond Trump’s outright economic warfare
“I think the possibility of a war between the US and China is pretty high,” Van Hooft says. He points out how militarized US foreign policy is and how little diplomatic and economic action the Biden administration is taking to engage states in the region. At the same time, Biden is going far beyond Trump’s “abrupt economic warfare” by halting high-tech economic development in China. “It’s not like we can find starting points for diplomacy now.”
The vast majority of countries in the region are members of ASEAN, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, but that doesn’t mean it’s a homogeneous group. Conversely, one part is close to China, another further away, with or without maritime status. And this explains the different geopolitical positions of those countries and their different approach to China.
Thin rope
Dubbelboer points to China’s economic entanglement with some ASEAN countries, which at the same time are close to the United States because they are at odds with China on the South China Sea. For example, Laos and Cambodia are close to China, are very dependent on it, and are also politically close to Beijing. A country like Indonesia, on the other hand, is large, is far from China and has a fairly large degree of independence, just like Singapore and Malaysia.
But countries with a maritime interest around a sea claimed by China are in a different position. ‘They like that they can stand side by side with the United States and that as a species balancer can pull in. But the precarious situation is that at the same time this increases the possibility of conflict and this is the fine line on which the ASEAN countries are balancing,’ says Dubbelboer.
‘In 2001, China was not in the position it is now. Right on top of Monkey Rock’
Van Hooft acknowledges that that balance is hard to find. For example, if countries do not take sides and the United States is not involved, China could continue to expand unhindered into the South China Sea. However, if they choose to side, China could feel surrounded and the situation will get worse if it doesn’t act quickly.
Powerful autism
“It’s hard to find a good way out of all this.” According to Van Hooft, Chinese diplomacy has failed miserably as it quickly became a superpower. The region’s volatility is illustrated by the position of the Philippines, which has clearly taken sides and is no longer walking a tightrope.
According to Dubbelboer, that country occupies a special position. Under President Marcos Junior, who took office last year, the country backtracked and ended former President Duterte’s foreign policy, which followed a pro-Chinese course. Duterte deeply hated the United States and turned to China in hopes of generating investment and goodwill. Which ultimately ended in failure.’
Dubbelboer, however, is surprised how much Philippine politics has returned to the US and how things are going equilibrium position surrendered, so much so that the Americans were even allowed to reopen military bases in the Philippines. He sees instability in this. Van Hooft adds that Japan is also becoming increasingly militarized and that South Korea is also moving more and more towards the United States under its new president, but is also seeking a connection with Europe.
“So you see all those states in the region trying to choose positions that are not too confrontational for China, but at the same time are a kind of insurance premium to keep their position safe.”
Listen to the full episode of the De Strateeg podcast here