The European Union is remarkably united in the war in Ukraine, the question is how long this unity will last. Thus says the professor of contemporary European history Mathieu Segers of the University of Maastricht in BNR De Wereld. Last week, French President Emmanuel Macron hinted at peace talks between Moscow and Kiev, the Eastern European EU member states are far from happy about it.
At a security forum in the Slovakian capital Bratislava last week, French President Emmanuel Macron called for a “strategic awakening”. According to Macron, the Russian invasion has permanently changed the security environment of the continent, and France and Europe play an important role in ensuring that security.
Macron’s speech was noteworthy: he alluded to peace talks between Kiev and Moscow and underlined the difficulty of negotiating with someone wanted by the International Criminal Court. That French Einzelgang raises many eyebrows. However, according to Segers, Macron has been trying since the beginning of the war to create a separate position for France and Europe that does not “necessarily follow the US line”.
“You could say it’s a provocation”
Military support from Washington continues to flow unceasingly to Ukraine > Macron does not distance himself from this, but indicates that there are ‘more flavors of American’. According to Segers, he is trying to prevent the door to Russia from slamming shut. “Russia stays where it is and is still closer to us than the United States.”
Negotiating with a criminal
Negotiations must therefore take place in due time and France wants to play a role in this. A logical step, but on the other hand it can also be seen as a provocation: Vladimir Putin has been summoned to the International Criminal Court. To ignore this fact is, of course, to circumvent international law. According to Segers, Macron is right, but he is provoking it.
‘The fact that you present it in such a one-sided way without further inserting it into a point of view, together with partners, for example in Europe or in a transatlantic context, is a provocation within our own cooperation. This is part of a French president, but it can also be tiring in the eyes of others.’
Macron’s comments are far from a new French sound, Segers also says. According to him, the French have said from the outset that European integration must also be a tool for Europe to take its own position on the future world scene. Segers defines it as a coherent French line which is spreading and which now, thanks to the war in Ukraine, has the wind in its sails.
Cracks in the unit
Unity within Europe may be a sine qua non, but how solid is this unity? According to Segers, this is currently relatively good: “There is more coordination than ever when it comes to defense cooperation, supply of weapons, introduction of sanctions packages, their enforcement, harmonization of positions.” Segers calls it not only impressive, but also contrary to expectations. But again: “How long will this unit that’s there now be even robust enough to maintain it into the more distant future?” I think that’s where the hardest questions lie.’
An example of subcutaneous dissent is the French mention of peace negotiations, while Eastern European states such as Poland and the Baltic states are firm on this and want to supply more weapons to Ukraine. Logical, they see happening on their borders what they have feared and shouted for years: aggressive Russian military imperialism.
“How long will this unit be robust enough?”
Pioneering role
What is also pushing France to take on a pioneering role within the EU is that the country is moving away relatively from the center due to the eastward expansion of the EU and the increased influence of Eastern European states. An abomination for the Elysium. But according to Segers, internal factors also pose a threat to that unity in the war. After all, how long can you take funds out of your budget to support a struggling country at the expense of your own problems?
Principle versus pragmatism
Finally, countries like Hungary and Cyprus also hinder such unity for reasons of their own. According to Segers, foreign policy is ultimately often very simple and can be reduced to fundamental or practical interests. Some Member States attach more importance to principled interests because they can afford it, for others it is simply a matter of money. According to Segers, Cyprus and Hungary have very clear interests that are still directly intertwined with the Russian economy. In the Hungarian case it is the energy supply, in the Cypriot case the tourism sector, which is largely kept afloat by the Russians.
According to Segers, EU countries that think all sorts of things should also look at themselves. And the Netherlands will also have butter on their heads. ‘As far as I’m concerned, there are now very good arguments to say: what Hungary is doing is not possible. But on the other hand you will have to prove that you do it differently yourself. And in the case of the Netherlands you can question quite a bit.’
According to Segers, the Netherlands has not only been very late with sanctions against Russia, but the Hague has not “always been adequate enough” in their implementation. And even now, the Amsterdam Zuidas, the port of Rotterdam and a company like Heineken “are not the strongest links in the European sanctions package”.
Listen to the entire broadcast of BNR De Wereld here
Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
