Wijninga says this is a difficult situation and several scenarios are possible. Ukraine may have launched the drones itself or had a third party do it. Consider, for example, the militias made up of Russian deserters. But they could also be partisans of Russia itself, for example,” explains the defense specialist.
Sow fear
Professor of Weapons and Aircraft Systems Mark Voskuijl of the Netherlands Defense Academy also believes it is not inconceivable that the Ukrainians are behind the drone strikes. “The manufacturer of the drones is hard to find out, but it could be true that this type of drone was produced by manufacturers in Ukraine.”
“The purpose of drone strikes is to spread fear among the population in Russia”
But Ukraine does not deny and still confirms these suspicions. So it remains a guess, but Wijninga has some idea of the idea with which the actions were performed. ‘I think the main purpose of this was to sow uncertainty and fear among the people of Moscow. Of course, that fear then spreads across the country.”
Mobilization
It is extraordinary that this time the attack did not take place at night, but simply in daylight, says Wijninga. “Citizens might see drones flying and then you know it can lead to fear.” The motive for sowing fear among the Russian population also makes Russian President Vladimir Putin a possible suspect.
“A new mobilization means that Russia assumes that the war will last a long time”
Putin can blame Ukraine and create a pretext to fight back harder. But he can also aim to instill fear in his own population and prepare them for the next mobilisation,’ explains Wijninga. “A new mobilization means that Russia assumes that the war will last longer and that there must be a response to a Ukrainian counter-offensive.”