“The fact that we are already working on (…) strengthening the Ukrainian air force is also an acknowledgment of the fact that even after a successful offensive by the Ukrainian side, this is far from over.” Because even if Ukraine manages to drive all Russians out of its territory, the new front line will simply be the Ukrainian-Russian interstate border, he continues. Because even if Russia is pushed back to its own territory, Ukraine still has no guarantee that hostilities will end.
While the war in Ukraine demonstrates how important a ground force is, air superiority is important in supporting and protecting ground troops. And this is what both sides are missing: “This is really the war in which the army has once again played a more crucial and more visible role, because neither has air superiority.” Ukraine wants those F-16s to at least prevent Russia from gaining that preponderance.
F-16 symbolism
Defense specialist and former battalion commander George Dimitriu believes it is unrealistic for either side to have air superiority now. According to him, “it will remain a competition at best.” Dimitriu also doesn’t think Ukraine will gain air superiority with F-16s in the short term. “You can see the effort the Americans or the West are making now to properly prepare, train, educate the Ukrainians for that fight.”
Dimitriu thinks the F-16 delivery is mostly of a very symbolic nature. “I don’t think the F-16s, especially the numbers they talk about, have a decisive effect. They are not a game changer like HIMARS, for example.’
“F-16s are not game changer like HIMARS”
According to Deen, the Western objective is twofold: to deny Putin a military victory and a political victory. Putin’s military goal is to defeat Kiev on the battlefield, his political goal is to dissuade the West to such an extent, for example through nuclear blackmail, that he puts pressure on Kiev to negotiate. The military objective is to reach Moscow through a war of attrition. Russia has the best cards for this: greater economic potential and the ability to mobilize more people and continue to do so for longer.
The price Russia pays for this is high, “but the price Ukraine pays is many times greater. Economically, but also humanly,’ says Deen. “Russia can also simply demolish Ukraine in the long run and this is what Ukraine urgently wants to communicate to us: ‘We don’t have another ten years for an Iran-Iraq war that will last eight or nine years. This must be faster.’
Security guarantees
Faced with an unreliable Russia that will sooner or later attack again, Ukraine prefers long-term security guarantees from the West. For example, in the form of NATO membership. Deen calls it “very difficult.” After all, as soon as you issue security guarantees, you have to be ready to fight. “And that’s obviously what everyone is afraid of and why NATO membership will be further delayed.”
Even Ukraine itself talks about joining NATO after the victory, “because it knows that the West does not want to join the fight.” Deen therefore thinks the F-16s are a political signal. “If we can’t offer NATO membership, we can provide fighter jets to help them keep their airspace safe and prevent Russia from continuing to attack critical infrastructure.”
Listen to the whole conversation in the BNR Perestrojkast podcast