The long-awaited spring offensive in the war in Ukraine is “actually already underway,” according to retired general and former army commander Mart de Kruif. “Preparation operations for the offensive are already underway.”
According to De Kruif, both Russia and Ukraine are already engaged in procurement and securing their sites. At the same time, strategic targets of the opponent are being bombed. This is already happening on both sides. We think we see the offensive and its beginning with drums and trumpets, but that’s not how war works,’ says De Kruif.
According to De Kruif, the next phase of the offensive is awaited. That moment is very difficult to time. It started with mock attacks. And side attacks – then you attack, but not at the center of gravity where you want to win. You want the opponent to be in the wrong place. They always try to deceive each other.’
“They are constantly trying to deceive each other”
De Kruif thinks that’s why Ukraine keeps declaring it wants to reconquer Crimea. “It’s very difficult from a military point of view, but you won’t find anywhere else all the Russian troops that are going to Crimea.”
According to De Kruif, this also applies to the Ukrainian presence in Bachmoet. “This forces the Russians to send reserves there again. Bachmut is not the offensive, but it fits the whole direction of Ukraine’. According to De Kruif, this direction aims to constantly keep the Russians in the wrong place.
Deep breath
Putin is ready for a long-term war, thinks De Kruif. Putin is betting completely on the weather, this is his only chance to win this war. It can last another two or three years with her money and his resources.’ Somewhere around that time, Putin hopes the West will surrender, thinks De Kruif. “He Hopes the West Will Bend Its Knees and Stop Economic Support for Ukraine.”
While Russia needs to take a deep breath, speed in an imminent offensive is needed for Ukraine. “Every day you wait, the Russians can get stronger. They dig more and more and can produce more ammunition and tanks.”
“Ukraine will really have to go on the offensive in June, otherwise it will be too late”
According to the former commander, Ukraine is waiting for weapons from the West and the right moment before launching a spring offensive. “If you start too early and have no supplies for five weeks, you have a real problem.” You can’t stop halfway.’
Now that most of the western tanks and armored vehicles have almost arrived in Ukraine, it is only a matter of weeks before the long-awaited offensive is visible, according to De Kruif. “I think Ukraine will really have to go on the offensive in June. Otherwise I’m too late. The question is, do they have enough resources?’
Russia learns
The Russian military also learns over time, sees the former commander. “A year ago they entered a village with twelve tanks, no infantry: there was nothing. Now we see that they train differently and perform differently on the pitch as well.’
Over time, the war has increasingly turned into a “close fight,” says De Kruif. A hand-to-hand fight. This is the most challenging form of combat for soldiers. It takes everything away from you: physically and mentally’.
The waste of troops is therefore brief: ‘We know that the Ukrainian army puts its troops in the trenches for about five days, I don’t think the Russians do much else. It can hardly be otherwise: you sleep, eat and drink little and are constantly under pressure. You can’t go on like this indefinitely.”
Logistic drama
Russia also has a logistics advantage in this war, says De Kruif. “The Russians get a lot of weapons from their own stores and very quickly switch to a war industry. Putin says: start making grenades 24 hours a day, instead of machines’.
‘Furthermore, Ukraine all has different weapon systems, each of which has different shells, tracks, engines and fuels. This is really a logistical drama.’ According to De Kruif, the need for a good supply of ammunition was a great lesson from eighteen months of warfare. “Ammunition consumption is much higher than we thought. That means you have to choose and you can’t always fight.’
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
