Ukraine has no choice but to mount a major offensive against Russia. At the same time, a failed major action against Russia is disastrous for morale, according to historian Nicolaas Kraft van Ermel. “And then international support wanes.”
For months there has been speculation about the expected Ukrainian offensive against Russia. Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky is touring European capitals to mobilize support and arms. Kraft van Ermel outlines the precarious situation in Ukraine: a quick offensive is desirable to keep Ukraine at the top of the agenda, on the other hand, a hasty counter-attack that fails is disastrous for the Ukrainian cause.
Sufficient material is therefore essential. “Weapons are expensive and they are running out,” says Kraft van Ermel. The question is “when will Ukraine have sufficient resources to do such a thing.” Furthermore, Ukraine also needs to look to the long term. Because according to Kraft van Ermel, even if the offensive were to succeed, “the war will not end in one fell swoop”.
Historically, it’s also important to achieve success quickly during a large-scale operation. “Otherwise your operation will bog down and you will lose momentum.”
There are also serious considerations as to whether a traditional offensive is still effective. “The Turkish drones that Ukraine now has have changed the nature of warfare. One of the big questions will be: is a large-scale offensive still suitable for modern means of warfare?’
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Source: BNR
Sharon Rock is an author and journalist who writes for 24 News Globe. She has a passion for learning about different cultures and understanding the complexities of the world. With a talent for explaining complex global issues in an accessible and engaging way, Sharon has become a respected voice in the field of world news journalism.
