In the 20 years that Erdogan has been in power, freedoms in Turkey have been increasingly restricted, says the former ambassador. Since 2010, the country has become increasingly autocratic, a trend exacerbated by the introduction of the new presidential system which has given Erdogan even more power. “Partly because of this, these elections are the last chance to save democracy in the country.”
It is young people in particular who feel that their freedoms are limited, “and that they cannot do the same things as young people in Western Europe,” says Kwaasteniet. “They feel really limited in their freedom.” This makes the millions of new young voters a major factor in this election.
Solid lead
The election promises to be a head-to-head race between incumbent Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of the AK Party and opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu of the centre-left Republican People’s Party (CHP). According to the latest polls, Kilicdaroglu has a solid lead. That doesn’t mean the profit has been made yet, Kwaastenet thinks. ‘Even a solid lead must first prove itself at the polls. They have a very good chance, but I haven’t opened the champagne yet.’
According to Kwaasteniet, it will be really tense. “If the margin is very tight, then they will have to recount. Stories about the machinations will also come out at that time. The Supreme Electoral Council can then decide that a second round is needed.” The electoral council is independent, but composed largely of AKP loyalists, Erdogan’s party.
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Kwaasteniet is not worried about a troubled transfer of power. “There will be riots if the margin is large. But if they are not relieved, I believe this transition will be peaceful.”
Kilicdaroglu said he wants to restore democracy in Turkey’s foreign policy. If he wins, he will seek a rapprochement with NATO and the EU in the first few weeks, Kwaasteniet thinks. “Because they want to go back to that democracy and those democratic values. You can’t get it if you turn to the Caucasus or China.” This is also why Kilicdaroglu will be the first to visit Brussels, thinks Kwaastenet.
Buttocks squeezed
According to the former ambassador, the foreign policy led by Kilicdaroglu will become ‘less irregular and less dependent on the so-called’executive diplomacy as existed between Putin, Erdogan and Trump”. ‘It’s becoming increasingly institutionalised, with a Ministry of Foreign Affairs, a Security Council, the Ministry of Defence. This makes politics more predictable,’ says Kwaastenet. Just think of those meetings between Trump and his North Korean partner. The whole world was there with their buttocks pressed against each other.’
However, that does not mean that a ruling Turkey and KEMAL will immediately follow all Western policies. Turkey wants to maintain the freedom to maintain relations with Russia,’ says Kwaastenet. “They say they want to be a good ally.” Therefore, the problems with Sweden regarding NATO membership “will also be resolved quite quickly”.
EU membership
The question is whether Turkey’s accession to the EU will also be seen in a different light. Turkey has been a candidate member of the European Union since 1999. To avoid further polarization in the world, Turkey’s membership is a good plan, Kwaastenet thinks. ‘But you also have to realize that the European Union is not at all ready for this. Turkey will become the largest country in the European Union, with more inhabitants than Germany and will be in the same category in terms of the number of votes obtained.’
This has repercussions on the balance within the Union, within the European Parliament. ‘Suddenly there will be a hundred Turkish MEPs in Brussels and Strasbourg. The European Union is not prepared for this in terms of decision-making.’
A modernization of the customs union is more likely. “It could take off pretty quickly.” This partnership guarantees the free movement of goods and a uniform trade policy towards countries outside the European Union. ‘The Customs Union is very important for the European business community in Turkey and also for the Turkish business community. By adding the service sector and the agricultural sector here, this alliance becomes much stronger.’