According to Osinga, the Czech president warns that Ukraine shouldn’t go on the offensive too lightly and really only has one opportunity to get it right, the opportunity for a shot. Not only because the West can no longer supply so many tanks, armored cars, artillery and ammunition, but also because the Russians are better prepared. ‘Unlike September last year, Russia dug in very well. There are ditches and anti-tank trenches everywhere.’
Limited profit
According to Osinga, Ukraine is therefore preparing for limited territorial gains. Ukraine is already doing this expectation management: Don’t expect too much from an offensive on that 1,000-kilometer front. We will not drive all the Russians back behind the original borders, we are happy if we can reclaim a piece of territory, for example in Melitopol and Zaporizhia.’ Osinga thinks that the Ukrainians in the Crimea and Donbass will drive a wedge between Russian units from there to continue the offensive next year.
Wet spring
When the Ukrainian offensive will begin remains a guess. This has everything to do with surprise, of course, but also, according to Osinga, with the ground conditions. “It’s been an insanely wet spring and they just want to make sure their armored cars and tanks with that column of trucks with ammunition and food behind them can continue at a brisk pace.”
Also, Western material keeps coming to Ukraine, so Ukrainians are not in much hurry, says the professor. It is very important for Ukrainians that the offensive be successful. If not, Western support could quickly erode and Zelensky will no doubt be pushed towards the negotiating table, where he absolutely does not want to end up.
“It’s been a crazy wet spring and they just want to make sure they can keep going at a fast pace”
New support
For now, however, Ukraine will receive a new US aid package worth $1.2 billion, including the purchase of new anti-aircraft systems, munitions and training. According to Osinga, this package differs from its predecessors: “It’s actually a lot of money with which the Americans will place orders with the military industry on behalf of Ukraine.” Other packages consisted of equipment from American stocks, this equipment has yet to be purchased.
According to Osinga, Ukraine is constantly asking for ammunition, the new package in particular contains a lot of ammunition for air defense systems. That air defense is Kiev’s priority: To shoot down Russian cruise missiles, the Ukrainian military has fired some 1,500 anti-aircraft missiles in recent days.
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