Putin already announced about a month ago that these tactical nuclear weapons would be located in Belarus. “Everyone was shocked by it,” says Patrick Bolder, a strategy analyst at HCSS and a retired lieutenant colonel. By now making sure that Belarusians can also operate those missiles, Putin makes the threat credible. After all, there are a few things to consider when using such a missile: how to attack nuclear warheads and also how to monitor it.’
“Now by ensuring that Belarusians can also operate the missiles, Putin makes the threat credible”
Islander missiles
The missiles in question, the Iskanders, can fly about 500 kilometers. “By itself, the strategic calculation for Europe will not change much,” thinks Bolder, “because the same weapons are now also in the Kaliningrad exclave. They can also hit Poland. Only now not only Russia, but also a client state has the weapons.”
The main purpose of deploying missiles in Belarus is to put additional pressure on the West, Bolder thinks, especially when it comes to arms deliveries. “Russia knows that we are sensitive to the nuclear threat. He hopes this will raise more voices saying: let’s stop those arms deliveries.’
Long-term strategy
Even if Bolder thinks that there may also be Putin’s long-term strategy behind it. “US nuclear weapons are stationed in several European countries. If a peace treaty is ever reached, Russia can say: We will remove nuclear weapons from Belarus, if you remove them from European countries.’